Over the weekend, the good folks over at TV By The Numbers took a look at the current prospects for renewal and cancellation of new and returning shows. In their analysis, they named eleven shows that are almost certain to be cancelled (some of which have already been cancelled like My Generation), and thirteen more that currently reside in that wonderful purgatory for TV shows and college basketball teams known as On the Bubble.
Now, for the most part, I agree with their classifications. Personally, I think Detroit 1-8-7 is more of a bubble show than "Likely to be Cancelled," and I honestly don't know how The Good Wife, which garners over 11 million viewers per week, is anywhere near Bubble status, but in general, these rankings are right on. As I am the Chuck guy around these parts, however, I'd like to make an argument why, despite its less than stellar ratings, Chuck is farther from the bubble than most think.
Chuck has always been a ratings problem for NBC. Twice, the network has tried to kill the show off, but the huge outpouring from its five million or so fans after Season Two earned it a 13-episode renewal. Then, the The Jay Leno Show debacle last season forced NBC to order an additional six episodes for Season Three. With the show's ratings holding steady throughout Season Three, and the prospect of a not so great pilot order, NBC reupped Chuck for another 13-episode season. Now, at this point, most of us Chucksters were more than happy to have the show back for thirteen more hours, and many of us expected that if the ratings didn't improve (and what niche show's fourth season's ratings demonstrably improve?), that would be the end of the show. But then, something funny happened on the way to cancellation: three NBC dramas bombed.
Outlaw, having been banished to Friday from the get-go, has already been cancelled, and Chase and Undercovers, are hanging on by a thread. If those shows are cancelled in the near future (as is widely expected), NBC will be left with three huge, hour-long holes to fill in its schedule (in theory, NBC would likely cancel The Apprentice as well, but it doesn't want to kill the brand when they are bringing back the popular Celebrity Apprentice in the spring). Can the network afford to pull Chuck after its thirteen-episode run, creating a fourth hour to fill? Looking at their "Upcoming Shows," the network only has four drama hours ready to go, and that includes Love Bites, a "romantic comedy" (or in more common TV terms, a dramedy) which has been troubled since the summer with star and producer issues. What are the chances all four of these shows will be ready to go, or of a high enough quality that NBC will want to put them on (not that beggars can be choosers when a network is in fourth place overall)?
What seems like a more likely scenario to me, is that NBC will renew Chuck for nine more episodes, and keep the show in its 8:00pm slot, with The Event at 9:00pm, and the new show
The Cape at 10:00pm, replacing Chase. The Cape is about a vigilante cop who takes the guise of his son's favorite superhero to battle evil, so it fits in very well with its lead-in shows' sci-fi, nerdtastic audience. I also anticipate that when Chuck's "back nine" is announced, NBC will say that the show will not be renewed for a Season Five so the creators have ample time to wrap up the story they want to tell, and the fans will have time to come to grips with the death of their favorite show.
Yes, Chuck is no ratings wonder, but it has steadily performed for the past couple seasons. Further, it is cheaper to produce than Chase or Undercovers or anything else the network can bring in to replace it. With the economy as it is, there is something to be said for non-expensively-produced shows; especially those that still garner a healthy, if not super strong rating in the core advertising demographic of 18-49 yr olds.
So, what do you think are Chuck's chances for survival? Am I thinking with my heart and not my head? Which Bubble shows do you think are safe, and which are destined for the dust heap? Please leave your comments below, and be sure to check out my recap of tonight's "Chuck vs. the Couch Lock" Tuesday morning.
UPDATE: As we've all been discussing the likelihood of a Chuck back nine order today, Michael Ausiello is hearing that said nine-episode order is just about finalized! He hasn't received any official word from the network yet, but his "insiders" are confirming to him the great news! More news as we here at TVOvermind hear it.
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I think (it was awhile back so I don't know exactly) I read that this site is known for twisting things in a way to generate article hits, so I think you're spot on in your assessment. Plus, given that we have the "is Chuck on the bubble?" conversation every year, I'm not sure it fazes me much anymore.
I think your characterization of NBC's position as "trying to kill Chuck off" is wrong. No network wants shows they have invested in to fail. They don't "try to kill them off."
Twice NBC considered whether or not to continue Chuck. That's not "trying to kill it off." Both times they decided to continue it for several reasons.
I'll admit that "trying to kill Chuck off" is a bit strong, but it was pretty clear that Chuck was done after its 13 episodes last year. Quality aside (because networks most often put quality aside when considering cancellation), the only reason the show was granted six more episodes and then a fourth season is because of the problems with The Jay Leno Show and a lack of quality pilots. There was little intention of still having Chuck around come the end of Season Two, and definitely not heading into Season Three.
I think Chuck’s chances for a 5th season are better than you may think. So far, NBC has 5 new shows (Chase, Undercovers, Law & Order LA, Outlaw, School Pride) that have failed to establish an audience for themselves. Parenthood and The Apprentice are pulling similar ratings to Chuck in the 18-49 demographic, have trended down in recent weeks and are likely more expensive than Chuck. This spring NBC will again find itself in the position of having to fill over at least 5 hours of primetime scheduling holes while it continues to rebuild. Chuck has an established, albeit small, viewer base and relatively low license fee ($1 – $1.5 MM per episode) from Warner Brothers. According to Ad Age (http://goo.gl/IpBn), only 6 shows* commanded appreciably more** at upfronts than Chuck. It would appear that canceling Chuck would be a poor business decision unless the network has at least two solid hour-long hits this Spring that they are willing to give 2011 full season commitments to. Save that, Chuck’s viewer base and profitability make it an attractive show to keep around as “schedule spackle” while NBC tries to rebuild.
* The five primetime shows with appreciably higher** weekday primetime ad rates at upfronts were 30 Rock, The Office, The Apprentice, Outsourced, Parenthood and The Biggest Loser.
** Appreciably more defined as within $5K for a 30-second spot.
Good points, Rob. I hope you're right, because I love the show, and any more episodes we can get are alright by me. I just wouldn't be surprised if it's May 2011 when the final episode airs.
Michael Ausiello just posted an article stating that a full back 9 is all but done.
Yup! I saw that too, and immediately put the Update at the end of the article, above. That's great news!!
That article about bubble shows on tvbythenumbers talks about the prospects of the shows coming back for a new season for fall 2011. They actually agree with you, that Chuck might likely get a backorder, I think.
NBC is more harder to judge cause all of the shows averages are down. "Chuck" is loved by the network despite its ratings.I doubt NBC will cancel all its new dramas, they will keep a couple at least. "TV by the numbers" are quick to put everything on the bubble or cancel everything
NBC can certainly cancel all new under performing programming, and it is in their best interest to do so. New shows don't have an established viewer base, and if they are pulling a sub-2.0 in the 18-49 demo, there is little hope that they will ever build a viewer base.
There is a bigger potential upside to canceling a show like Chase (pulling a 1.5/1.6) and replacing it with something new that may build a bigger audience than keeping the show alive. In NBC's case this applies to all failing new shows, but not as much to established shows like Chuck & Parenthood, because they have so many failed new shows.
Alex, I agree with you in general, but averages are down across all of TV as there are so many options for viewers. It doesn't change the fact that Chuck still doesn't perform all that well. If NBC keeps any new drama, it will be The Event, and likely L&O: L.A.
I agree with Rc when s/he says it is easier to cancel new shows than established ones. I also can see a situation, however, where Chuck gets to finish through May, and then is cancelled in the summer in favor of some other new show. NBC is likely going to option a large number of pilots since nothing is really taking this season. If they receive enough good ones, Chuck (and maybe Parenthood) will be gone. I hope it doesn't happen!! We'll all just have to wait and watch!
Obviously, they will cancel something but cancel everything won't fix the problems. That is the mentality of "Tvbythenumbers". "The Event" is the only one that is ok. "LOLA" , Undercovers , Chase ,and Outsourced are questionable. It depends on the network expectations
I hear you. And God I wish they would cancel Outsourced and bring back Parks & Recreation!
I think you also need to take into accunt that NBC has given Chuck virtualy now promotion this season and the ratings have stayed relatively strong. And given the supreme failures of so many shows so far they can't afford to cancel Chuck. I also think that if they move Chuck they would see a ratings jump similar to the season 3 premire which would be conciderably better than many of their other shows.