Best Actress in a Television Series Drama
- Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
- Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
- Piper Perabo, Covert Affairs
- Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy
- Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
The background: This is a compelling category this year. A few stalwarts, one insane nomination and one surprisingly awesome nomination. Not a bad batch. Over the last 10 years, this category has been odd in that no one winner has repeated. Heck, a number of the nominees changed from year-to-year as well, something that seems to happen very rarely with the Globes as long as performers’ series actually stay on the air. In terms of actual quality of winners, it’s been something of a mixed bag, but not too awful. Of course, we have the totally random Anna Paquin win in 2008, but current comedy nominee Edie Falco won for her work on The Sopranos in 2002, Glenn Close rightfully won for her excellent performance on Damages in 2007 and Julianna Margulies deserved it last year as well. I’m not sure about a Jennifer Garner win in 2001 or a Geena Davis win for Commander-in-Chief, but there are worse winners. Like Anna Paquin.Outside of Close, however, this category hasn’t necessarily been stacked with big name winners. Sure, Mariska Hargitay and Kyra Sedgwick are big television names, but they’re not massive names in the industry as a whole. That more or less bodes well for everyone in the category this year.Finally, over the 2000-2009 period, there didn’t seem to be much cable bias, as network performers won five out of the 10 years.
Other factors: Piper Perabo is literally the most unlikely nominee in this category in the last decade and a half. I mean, at least people liked Anna Paquin’s performance in True Blood. I’m not sure who in the heck really enjoys Covert Affairs or Perabo in general, but you know what? She’s attractive. And young. And blonde. So there’s that. Katey Sagal is finally getting noticed for her work on Sons of Anarchy, to which I, along with everyone else who watches that program say, IT’S ABOUT DAMN TIME. She’s a four-time nominee for her work on Married…With Children, so it’s not like the voters don’t know who she is. That could mean something. Of course, Sedgwick and Margulies after former winners, not just nominees, which bodes well for them as well.
The frontrunner: This is honestly the toughest pick. In the second year, it seems like buzz has cooled a bit for Margulies, but only because The Good Wife has a stacked stable of performers on its cast and a great rotating group of supporting players and guest stars. Elisabeth Moss has been given her first nom this year and she did fantastic work in season four. But for whatever reason, the Mad Men actors and actresses never get their due. She’s the most deserving, but I just can’t see it. Sedgwick is on her way out and she won the Emmy when everyone expected it to go to Margulies, so she’s also a major threat. But in the end, I think Margulies becomes the first repeat winner in a while.
Right there: Both Moss and Sedgwick could just as easy win. The latter is much more likely than the former, but it’s probably a three-person race at this point.
Concluding ramblings: Just like Scott Caan, I’ve completely disregarded Piper Perabo, which means she’ll probably win. I love Katey Sagal and wouldn’t care if she won, but she really didn’t get enough good material in season three to warrant the victory. But if this is a retroactive award for season two of SAMCRO, I’m cool with that.
Best Actor in a Television Series Drama
- Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
- Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
- Michael C. Hall, Dexter
- Jon Hamm, Mad Men
- Hugh Laurie, House
The background: As usual, a stacked category. This group includes three former winners in the category with Hugh Laurie (2005, 2006), Jon Hamm (2007) and Michael C. Hall (2009). Those three have been in the conversation for a while now, so they’re always big threats. In the 2000-2009 years they didn’t win, the victorious performers were generally in high-profile roles that everyone enjoyed: Kiefer Sutherland, Ian McShane, Michael Chiklis, that kind of business. So even though they are new to this race, Steve Buscemi and Bryan Cranston are in good positions because everyone knows about their roles and the the programs in which they perform them. Laurie is the only network guy on the list, but including his two victories, winners came from the big four half of the time between 2000 and 2009.
Other factors: Again, last year was a big night for Showtime and for Dexter, and that’s all very possible again. I already predicted one winner for that series and could just as easy see Hall walk away with the award again. If we’re to consider star power, there is definitely something to be said for Jon Hamm‘s ever-rising profile. He was excellent in The Town, a film in the Oscar discussion, and he continued to do awesome work on 30 Rock and SNL. He’s probably not an A-lister yet, but he’s close. Some consideration also has to be made for Cranston‘s three-peat at the Emmys. I know the Globes are a different story, but it’s obvious that the HFPA finally took notice of his work (but still failed to acknowledge the series’ quality). Plus, we can’t forget the contact buzz Buscemi gets for working with Marty and Winter on Boardwalk. And if we pretend for one second that the voters actually watch the series that they nominate, Hugh Laurie has done some really great stuff on House over the past calendar year, which gives him a chance.
The favorite: My lord, I really have no idea. The voters aren’t shy to give someone the award more than once and each of these gentlemen deserves the award in their own right. But just on pure performance quality alone, I have to think that Jon Hamm deserves it the most. Throw in his rising profile and it makes a lot of sense for him to win for a second time.
Right there: Michael C. Hall is a big threat as well because of the aforementioned Showtime factor. The voters seem to really like Dexter and Hall is generally awesome. I think Boardwalk is going to get enough love that Buscemi also has a chance to walk away with this one.
Concluding ramblings: It seems like Hugh Laurie‘s time has passed, which isn’t really a knock on him but just an observation of the quality of the category. And Bryan Cranston might have finally gotten his recognition nomination, but it seems like that’s all this is. Again, I’d be far from shocked if either of these gentlemen takes the award, but there’s certainly some separation between the top three guys and these two. I think. Maybe.
Up next: The series noms!
You do realize that Michael C. Hall announced he had cancer AFTER the voting process was over, right? It didn't affect anything and he certainly didn't win because of that.