Recap - Survivor 20.08 "Expectations"

On to Tribal Council.  Jeff notes the tribe's four straight losses, and asks them if it was smart to get rid of Tyson and Rob.  To further illustrate his point, Jeff mentions that Coach was the only one to win his heat at the Immunity Challenge, and that Courtney has been pretty useless, as she's sat out the majority of the challenges.  Courtney playfully fakes insult with "Jeffrey," but says that she doesn't have an ego, so she doesn't need to be in every challenge and win.  "Insulting me won't bring [Tyson and Rob] back," she notes.  Courtney goes on, saying that Coach was responsible for who was in and out of challenges because he wanted the "A-Team" on for the Reward because he was hungry.  Jeff asks if the implication is morale is down around camp because of Coach.  Parvati won't place the blame on the Slayer, but does admit she is concerned about the tribe's continued slide.  Too many of their decisions have been made based on assumptions, mostly about The Merge.  Jeff lays into Courtney again, asking whether it would be better to get rid of her now as she has nothing to contribute, but she retorts she is a "determined little bitch," earning a fist bump from Sandra.  Jeff asks Russell how he is determining his vote.  His response is that he's voting to keep the tribe stronger, and to keep trust in place.  With that, it's time to vote.  The tribe does, with Courtney calling Coach a "lunatic," and making fun of the feather in his hair.  Jeff gathers the votes and reads them out.  Two votes for Coach, then two for Courtney.  A third for Courtney, then a third for Coach.  Hmmmm......  The final vote is read, "The ninth person voted out of Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains and the first member of the jury...Coach!"  The Dragon Slayer has been slayed.  He rises, has his torch snuffed and walks toward the Blue Light of Death.  Jeff leaves the tribe to return to camp, commenting, "You don't know if trust is gone until it is too late." 

Next time on....Survivor!

Jeff recaps some of the dumbest moves in Survivor history, including James being voted out with two immunity idols in Survivor: China and Erik giving up his immunity in Survivor: Micronesia.  Next week's move might rival them all.  Cut to JT telling members of his tribe that he had a chance to secretly talk with Russell, and he gave Russell the Heroes' Immunity Idol.  Whaaaaaaat?!?!?!?!  This would be the most ridiculous thing ever.  I think The Merge won't happen until there are ten people left, so this could be a crazy episode coming up next week.  Also notice that a three-person final Tribal Council (which I despise) is likely.  With Coach becoming hte first person on the Jury, if there was a two-person finale, there would be ten Jury members, which is way too many and could lead to a tie vote.  Yes, a tie vote is still possible with three people vying for nine Jury votes, but it is much more unlikely.  I do wonder, though, what are the tiebreaker procedures for the final Tribal Council.  I would love to find out.

Odds to Win

Well, another favorite bites the dust, falling prey to Russell Hantz once again.  This episode, combined with the potential craziness of JT givingan idol to Russell brightly illustrates the competitive advantage Russell had because the other contestants didn't see his season.  It seems unfair to everyone else, but the Villains do all see his manipulation and his making deals with everyone on his tribe, just like last season in Samoa.  He's just that good that he convinces them to align with him anyway.  Russell is one of the best of all time, plain and simple.  So, how did this week's episode change the odds?

Danielle: 5-1.Danielle is still in catbird seat: she is in the majority alliance on the larger tribe (albeit one that is quickly losing its size), and I think she is a prime candidate to flip to the Heroes, having seen Russell's game-play first hand.  Might she be tarred though for aligning with Russell so closely?

Amanda: 10-1.  The Heroes beauty is still there, and seems to have aligned herself with Candice.  I don't think anyone on the Heroes tribe considers her Threat #1 on their tribe (that would be Colby or JT), and she's sure to pull Parvati into the ranks once The Merge occurs.  With the Tribes about even, she also doesn't have to worry as much about numbers once the tribes are one.

Candice: 20-1.  Candice's odds keep improving because she has proven herself a strong competitor with a stable alliance partner in Amanda.  It is clear they see eye-to-eye, so she now has some protection.  Further, come The Merge, she will not be in the cross-hairs of anyone unless she wins a couple Individual Immunities in a row. 

Colby:25-1.  Another week without going to Tribal, so another week to stick around for Colby.  He seems to have found his mojo, so if he can make it a couple more weeks, he could be golden.

Jerri: 30-1.  Jerri lost a major ally in Coach, but she now seems to be protected by Russell.  Will the loss of the Slayer motivate her, or will she descend into a shame spiral?  If she can remain motivated, she has a large incentive to jump ship and join Colby against Russell, whom she still doesn't fully trust.

Russell: 50-1.  This week's biggest mover is Russell.  Look, I still think he's going to lose because of his attitude at the Samoa finale, but you have to admit he's playing another great game.  If it is true that JT gave him the Hidden Immunity Idol, well then, all bets are off, because not only will he have an idol, but he'll have a new partner in JT.

Parvati: 100-1.  Most contestants still have no desire to see her win, but she seems to be flying under the radar thanks to the bombast that is Russell.  Combine that with a ready-made partner after The Merge, and that could spell success for Parvati.

Sandra: 200-1.  Prime choice for flipping, but still a former winner that no one can really stand.

Courtney: 250-1.  She somehow managed to stay this week, but Courtney is useless.  Plus, she might break in half with a strong wind.

JT: 500-1.  If the preview is true, and he really gave an idol to Russell, JT is a moron and will be cut as soon as possible, if not by his own tribe, then by Russell.

Rupert: 1,000-1.  Perhaps I should be kinder to Rupert, but even if he makes the final, there will still be two other options for the Jury to choose instead of him.  Sorry, Rupert.

OK folks, that's what I've got for this week.  What did you think of this episode?  Is Russell's ousting of Coach to solidify the "women's alliance" ruse an inspired move?  I can't think of a time a strategy was based on the perceptions of the other tribe, can you?  Am I being too hard on Rupert?  Do you agree with the odds listed above?  Leave your questions, comments and thoughts below.  Please be sure to check out TVOverMind for all of your TV needs, and come back next Friday for another recap.  Until then, I'm off to bathe in the ocean.

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