...Tribal Council. Jeff asks Ralph what it is like with twelve people in one camp. Ralph says there hasn't been a lot of mixing of the two tribes. Rob says no one is saying anything to each other. David complains that they weren't under the tarp during the rain storm. Ashley pipes up that Ometepe had won the tarp so they deserved to sleep under it. David admits that the only reason Ometepe won the tarp was because Zapatera threw the Challenge. Jeff asks Phillip to respond to that news, but David interrupts Phillip. When Phillip goes on one of his rants about being interrupted, the girls (i.e. Natalie and Ashley) laugh wildly at him. Jeff asks Ashley about the division within the tribe. She says that while she doesn't dislike anyone from Zapatera, they are being loyal to their original tribes. Jeff asks Mike about the numbers and Matt's vote. Mike responds that they will find out where everyone stands after the vote. Ralph flat out says Zapatera will take Matt farther in the game if he flips. Matt admits that he is on the bottom of the Ometepe alliance, so that may inform his vote. Jeff says that this vote is big, and Matt is in the middle.
It's time to vote. They do, and Jeff collects the ballots. Steve whispers, "This is going to be good." Jeff asks if anyone wants to play an HII. Ralph gets up and says he does for the benefit of Mike. Jeff accepts the HII and says any votes for Mike will nto count. He reads the votes. The first is for Grant, as are the second, third, fourth and fifth. Vote Six is for Steve. Vote Seven is for Matt, as are Votes Eight, Nine, Ten and Eleven. At this point, it is clear Zapatera all voted for Grant, Matt voted for Steve, and Andrea's is the pivotal vote. "The eighth person voted out of Survivor: Redemption Island...Matt!" Matt, in utter disbelief, grabs his torch and brings it to be snuffed for a second time. David mutters under his breath, "Genius is what that was." Julie says, "Oh my God, that poor kid." Matt marches off into the Blue Light of Death. Jeff notes that Matt is headed back to Redemption Island to await at least one more person. That person should beware as forgiveness will not be on Matt's mind.
Next Time On...Survivor!
Rob cements control of the tribe, or does he? Grant voices that he is his own player. Phillip gets a make over with a new headdress. Phillip says he asked for a sign and the feather, now part of his headdress, appeared out of nowhere.
Well, well, well. That was quite the great episode, wasn't it? I complained last week that the show and CBS constantly spoiled us by telling us when The Merge was going to happen and other plot points, but they surprised me this week by keeping RI open after The Merge. Then, Matt was completely blindsided by Ometepe, and moreover, by Andrea. How does the guy recover from that? He clearly has a home field advantage at the RI Arena, but damn. Plus, Zapatera's HII is now out of play, Rob still has his HII, and Ometepe still has a numerical advantage. All in all, that was a pretty exciting episode of Survivor, and the season has been kicked up a notch.
One note: the season finale is scheduled for Sunday, May 15. Assuming there is a Final Three, and on the traditional Sunday two-hour Finale, they start with five players, eliminating one player per hour to get to the Final Three, there are going to have to be two double eliminations during the next few weeks. Now a triple-header RI Duel sounds pretty cool, but two double eliminations? Sounds pretty rough to me. This will obviously have a major effect on the game, I'm just not sure what yet. At least any double eliminations didn't occur when there was still tribal Immunity -- there is nothing worse than a tribe winning a Challenge, and having to eliminate someone anyway.
Odds to Win
So, how does the retention of RI, the loss of an HII, Andrea's staying loyal to Rob, and Matt's second elimination effect the Odds? Well, first off, I think there will be two eliminations on RI, with the winner of the second Duel heading back into the game with ten players remaining (nine non-RI participants and the RI winner). Therefore, Matt will only have to win two more Duels. Can he do it? Methinks he might have some much tougher competition than Sarita coming up next (see below). I figured Ralph and Zapatera would figure out some way to screw up using their HII, so I never gave it much weight to begin with. Andrea's loyalty is interesting. She is clearly still at the bottom of the Ometepe alliance (except for maybe Phillip), and seems to be a candidate for switching; however, she is not adverse to flipping. Could she peel away Grant and make a play against Rob? So many interesting questions to be answered in the coming weeks. Let's take a look at the new Odds to Win:
Grant: 5-1. It's interesting: Zapatera wanted to wound Rob by taking out his top lieutenant, instead of going right at Rob. Maybe there was an explanation, but if so, I missed it. Grant will be in Zapatera's sights, but with a numerical advantage, the chance to go to RI if does get voted out, likely a couple Individual Immunity Challenge wins coming, and, apparently, waking up to the fact that he needs to make some sort of move, I still think Grant is in a good position. Cut to Grant being eliminated next week.
Andrea: 8-1. In perhaps the smartest move of the season so far, Andrea ditched Matt and voted with Rob, after Matt threw her under the bus (unintentionally) when Matt spilled his plan to blindside Rob. By voting with Rob, she retains him as an ally in the majority alliance. Further, she gives Rob no reason to target her before anyone on Zapatera, and after the next elimination, her dalliance with flipping may be forgotten. I am a bit worried about her Immunity Challenge performances, but for now, Andrea is relatively safe.
Steve: 10-1. I'm jumping Steve up mostly based on the fact that I don't like the prospects of the other players. Mike seems to be in Rob's cross-hairs, and I could see Ometepe wanting to rid themselves of Ralph and David before Steve, too. Plus, I think Steve may have a well-timed Individual Immunity win in him. Next week will be interesting to see how Steve reacts to being in the minority alliance.
Mike: 12-1. Mike is in trouble as he is Rob's number one Zapatera target. For that, I have to drop Mike down; however, the guy is clearly excellent in Challenges, and if anyone can beat Matt in an RI Duel, it's Mike. He clearly has sway over his alliance, as he got Ralph to use the HII on him quite easily. The question remains: can he maneuver that alliance into a position to take out Rob and break the Ometepe alliance? We'll have to see.
Rob: 14-1. Seriously, I don't want to move Rob up the Board, as I really think he has little chance of winning. The problem is, he is playing a perfect game so far (if he wasn't in his fourth time playing the game, I would be a little concerned), and the players around him might just be dumb enough to let him get to the Final Three. If that's the case, Rob wins. I'd say he might lose if Matt makes it too, but I don't think either of them makes it to the Final Three with the other still in the game.
Natalie: 20-1. Alright Natalie, I will give credit where credit is due. You won the first Individual Immunity. Kudos. You are clearly there to win and not just get a tan. One more Immunity victory and you will be a real threat to win the game because you will have done something to put yourself there, instead of just riding Rob's coattails. Here's to you.
Julie: 32-1. FLOATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ashley: 38-1. Admit it: there is no way Ashley wasn't the Mean Girl in high school, right? I have a sneaking suspicion she might make it to the end of the game. This will bother me to no end.
Ralph: 48-1. Ralph, it was one thing to tell your alliance you had an HII. It's a complete other thing to actually give it to someone else, and not even hesitate when doing so! I'm sure there is some scenario where Ralph makes it to the Final Three, but for the life of me, I don't see it. Maybe I just don't want to see it.
David: 50-1. I know I'm swinging David violently up and down the Board, but I really thought he was dead in the water after last week. He managed to deflect all attention this week, except for his admission during Tribal Council. That, I don't believe, will have much bearing on the rest of the game. What will, however, is David's realization that Rob is a badass Survivor player. David was clearly awed by the move to oust Matt, so he will be on his guard. I figure David will end up out-thinking himself, with his brain exploding trying to figure out the permutations of Rob's next move, but if he can keep it together, David might be able to get to the end.
Matt: 100-1. I was right that the show was creating fake tension in last week's preview of this week's episode by pointing out Matt's injured foot. There was no way he was losing that Duel. Anyway, players that are that honest, and can't keep their mouths shut are doomed in this game. Knowledge is power in Survivor, so when Matt spilled his guts about his plan to vote out Rob TO ROB, he was done then and there. If he somehow makes it back into the game again, there is no way in Hell that he is allowed to make it to the Final Three. He will need an Ozzy plus Fabio plus Colby level Individual Immunity performance to stay in the game because the first time he is unprotected, he is gone. If Matt makes it to the Final Three, he wins, likely unanimously.
Phillip: 400-1. Like some of the worst floaters in Survivor history, Phillip is going to be around for a while. He's a guaranteed vote in Rob's pocket, and though he thinks he's outwitting everyone, at least a couple players are streets ahead of him (shout-out to all the Community fans out there!). I am now at the point that I will not be surprised if he makes it to the Final Three, but there is no way he is going to win. All of the other players clearly have no respect for him, so I can't see him garnering any votes, especially in a Final Three where there is still another option for a protest vote.
Alright, that was Survivor: Redemption Island for this week. What did you think? Do you feel bad for Matt that he has to go back to RI, or is it deserved for being such a numbskull and telling Rob about his plans? Was Andrea smart in voting with Rob to oust Matt? Can you see Zapatera peeling anyone off from Ometepe? What do you think of the new Odds to Win? Please leave your questions, comments and theories below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to form a group of Oreo cookie lovers.
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