...Tribal Council. Jeff asks David to take him back to the thrown Challenge. Is that a big regret now? David replies that obviously they are paying the price now. They could still have the momentum if they never threw that Challenge. "Ralph, you got destroyed in Challenge," Jeff states. Ralph responds that if he was shooting, he could have done better. Jeff asks Sarita why she sat out. Sarita begins to answer, but Stephanie chimes in that Sarita was quaking in her boots when they found out the Challenge was going to be physical. Sarita responds that she didn't want to be the reason they lost. Jeff pounces: Sarita was happy to sit out so she wouldn't be the goat? David agrees. Sarita says she would have been good in the Challenge, but Stephanie calls BS. She's never heard anyone complain as much as Sarita. Sarita heartily disagrees with such a characterization. Jeff asks Steve if any part of him thinks Stephanie's spunk is worth keeping around? Yes, Steve answers, but Sarita is trustworthy. Steve continues that Sarita is a bit of an uptown girl that hasn't adapted. David thinks he's hearing negatives about Sarita. They shouldn't be worried about trust right now, just winning.
With that, it is time to vote. Sarita votes for Stephanie and vice versa. David, too, votes for Sarita. Jeff grabs the ballots and begins to count them. The first vote is for Sarita, and the second is for Stephanie. Vote Three is for Sarita, and Vote Four is for Stephanie. Vote Five for Stephanie gives Stephanie an unwanted 3-2 lead. Jeff reads the final vote: "The sixth person voted out of Survivor: Redemption Island...Stephanie!" As Stephanie has her torch snuffed, David is beside himself with bewilderment. Jeff tells the tribe that they went with someone they could trust instead of someone strong in Challenges. They will find out soon enough if they made the right choice.
Next Time On...Survivor!
One of the difficult aspects of Survivor is the mental fatigue. This is made clear by quick cuts of many players complaining about others and freaking out.
As I said last week, this wasn't one of the most dramatic or surprising episodes (except for maybe the utter dominance of Ometepe in the Immunity Challenge), but that's fine -- not every episode can be fantastic. Further, Matt's Duel win was completely predictable, and so it came to pass. Next week, with Zapatera now needing to cannibalize their alliance if they go to Tribal Council, and Ometepe's ongoing Phillip/Ashely problem, it should be a better episode than this week. And I'm going to make a prediction: Matt will lose the Duel to Stephanie next week. Five wins in a row just seems too difficult, even for Matt. Now, I certainly won't be surprised if Matt wins again, but I think Stephanie is so determined to come back, that I think she might be able to pull it off. Of course, this all depends on what the actual Duel is, but look for Stephanie to eek out a win. (You can all laugh heartily at me when Matt wins next week. I give you permission.)
Odds to Win
Krista losing the Duel was not a surprise. Neither was Stephanie's ouster once Zapatera lost the Challenge. So how do these and the continuing war between Phillip and Ashley effect the Odds? Let's take a look:
Mike: 5-1. The continued losses by Zapatera are obviously not helping Mike's chances. Regardless of how the tribes go into The Merge, I have to imagine Mike will be the first target of Rob and his alliance, especially after Mike ripped Grant's shirt! Mike really needs numbers to protect him so Zapatera needs to move it into high gear next week.
Grant: 11-2. Every time Ometepe wins, Grant's chances improve. that sounds obvious, but what I mean is that if he can go into The Merge even with Zapatera or with an advantage in numbers, Grant should make it to the end. Rob will be the first target of Zapatera and possibly Andrea. This keeps the spotlight off of Grant and gives him the opportunity to band together other possible alliances. The only question is whether Grant can thrive without Rob. Will he be unable to lead his own way through the game?
Julie: 8-1. Julie is playing a great game right now. She's performing well in Challenges, and allowing herself to not get in the way in the social aspect of the game. Sticking with her alliance and voting out Stephanie was a smart move for Julie, if not for her tribe. If it's possible, at this point in the game, players should do what they can to avoid rocking the boat. There will be plenty of time to stab your alliance in the back after The Merge.
Steve: 13-1. Zapatera is on a losing streak, which is bad. Steve is being called out for not performing well in Challenges, which is worse. Steve's social skills (being ambivalent about whom to vote out and slamming Sarita while trying to "support" her) is the worst. I don't think Steve will be the first target of Ometepe after The Merge, but if he doesn't improve his attitude and game play, Steve isn't long for this game.
Andrea: 16-1. If Ometepe can win at least one more Challenge, I think Andrea will be able to shoot up this Odds board. She seems to have weathered the initial distrust Rob had of her and Matt, and has proven herself a hard worker. Phillip and Ashley are likely bigger targets on her tribe at the moment. Further, if she does make The Merge, she will be the most important player in the game as she has a reason to turn on Ometepe, but also reasons to stay. My only concern for her, at this point, is that if Ometepe loses before The Merge, Rob might still try to target her because he knows he can manipulate the others.
Rob: 17-1. Rob is dominating this game in every way possible. He's gotten his tribe back on even footing with Zapatera. He is able to calm all of the nerves on his tribe, and he has everyone on Ometepe eating out of his hand. Rob is playing a perfect game so far, and he's holding an HII. If he can get to The Merge with a numerical advantage, Rob might be unstoppable.
Ralph: 20-1. I said it last week, and I have to say it again, "There was very little Ralph this episode." This is a good thing for Ralph, especially after his rather braggadocios start to the season. The longer he can stay under the radar, the better. Plus he has an HII, as well. He just needs to continue to keep his attitude in check. And keep growing that beard, Ralph. It's incredible.
Natalie: 30-1. My attitude toward Natalie is starting to change. Starting. I was totally wrong that she's more annoying than Ashley, and she performed exceptionally during the Challenge. With Rob's protection, Natalie is going to get far. She needs to make some affirmative move though to prove she deserves to win.
Ashley: 47-1. Ugh. Just ugh. Go away Ashley. Please. I know Phillip isn't a great tribemate, but you're playing a terrible social game now. Rob won't be able to protect you forever.
Matt: 52-1. Another Duel, another win. I know above I predicted he would lose next week, but there really is no reason to think he won't keep winning. If he makes it back into the game proper at The Merge with even numbered tribes, Matt will be in the cat-bird seat. I'll be honest, I'm rooting for that situation because it will make great TV.
David: 65-1. It began last week, and continued this week. David started letting his ego get in the way of good game play. He just couldn't sit still long enough to play smartly. This was the problem with him never watching a season of the show before going on. Now, he's turned on his alliance and is left dangling in the wind. If Zapatera loses another Challenge, I still imagine Sarita will be the next to go, but his alliance must be suspicious of David now.
Stephanie: 80-1. She tried her best, but Stephanie sealed her fate when she signed on with Russell. If she wins the Duel next week, I won't be surprised, but maybe three wins in a row? I'm not so sure. Plus, if she makes it back into the game, I don't see her scheming ways playing very well with other players. I just don't see Stephanie making it to the end.
Phillip: 400-1. Like Ashley, I see Phillip moving into the "take him to the end because he won't garner any votes" category. But can Phillip really win? Really?
Sarita: 600-1. So sweet, but just not cut out for this game. She took herself out of the Challenge, and then didn't have a good reason for so doing. Her whole tribe is wary of her lack of physical prowess, and she might have a tooth infection. I just don't see how Sarita survives to The Merge, and I think she has no shot at winning an RI Duel.
Alright, that's it for this week. Not a fantastic episode, but promising to be better next week. What did you think of the episode? Was Zapatera right for getting rid of Stephanie instead of Sarita? Was David smart for going out on a limb in trying to get rid of Sarita? Is there anything that can stop Rob? Please leave your questions, comments and theories below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to play Arafat and make the peace.
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