For the Challenge, each player gets a stack of cards. On the cards are a series of symbols. Jeff will give them a pattern using the symbols which they then have to repeat back using their cards. If a player gets one wrong, that player is out. The last remaining player wins Immunity. Jeff gives them the pattern: Canteen, Hook, Pot, Fire, Canteen, Pot, Fire. All of the players get the first and second symbols correct. Everyone gets the Pot right. Phillip and Natalie then go out on Fire. Grant and Andrea go out on the Canteen, putting up a machete and a knife, respectively; two symbols that were never shown. Steve and Ashley then go out on the second Pot symbol. "Rob wins Immunity!" (Of course he does....it was a puzzle!)
There is no deliberation -- it is time to vote. Rob nods at Grant and they individually head up to the voting booth. Andrea votes for Steve. Steve votes for Grant. Jeff collects the ballots. Anyone want to play the HII? No. The first vote is for Grant. The second is for Steve. Did the rest of Ometepe vote for Steve or Andrea? Vote Three is for Steve, as are Votes Four and Five. "The thirteenth person voted out...Steve!" Steve has his torch snuffed and walks into the Blue Light of Death. Jeff congratulates the Ometepe Six in eliminating all of the Zapateras. The bad news? There is nowhere left to hide. With that, he sends them back to camp.
Next Time On...Survivor!
The Ometepe Six have dominated the game, but are now forced to turn on each other. A massive Challenge leaves everyone depleted.
Well, I can't say I'm surprised that the Ometepes stayed together this long to eliminate all of the Zapataeras. Ashley and Natalie are too star-struck with Rob to turn against him. Andrea is too scared to try to make a move. Grant thinks he's waiting for the opportune time to backstab Rob, but I think that time might have just passed him. Phillip will be in the Final Three, so he has no reason to rock the status quo. How does Rob not make it to Finale Night? He already has everyone ready to vote off Andrea next week, and I'm sure he can turn Natalie and Ashley against Grant (or Phillip) in a heartbeat. Plus he has the HII that no one else knows about. Rob is golden.
Let me take a minute to address Redemption Island. At the beginning, I actually thought this was an intriguing idea. I liked the Duels. I liked players having a second shot to win. I liked how the whole thing played out with Matt going on his streak and reentering the game. Then the show kept RI alive. I was wary of this, but was willing to go with it. Then they put three players on RI, and to make it worse, only one of those three people was eliminated after the Duel. My enthusiasm began to wane. Now, there are four people on RI, and to make the numbers work for the finale, there will still be four people there come Finale Night. (Jeff has said there will be eight people still alive in the game come Finale Night: with two regular episodes before then, and six players currently still in the main part of the game, that means there will be two Tribal Councils, bringing down the six to four, and four players on RI).
This is now bordering on ridiculous. The drama of seeing the numbers dwindle and people have to make hard decisions about who to vote out and who to align with has been lost. Perhaps, Rob will decide to turn on Grant, in hope that he will eliminate Matt and Mike from RI, which could be intriguing. Otherwise, the main part of the game will just move ahead without any sense of drama because we know that person will just get another shot amongst a whole group of people over at RI. I suspect Matt will win the remaining Duels, or lose the last one, just based on the way they have edited his story (which is, admittedly, pretty remarkable), but for me, Matt's redemption is not sufficient to bring back RI in the future.
Odds to Win
Zapatera is finally gone. Matt is broken down but still triumphant. There are four freaking people on RI. Andrea seems to be in Rob's crosshairs, but has no idea. How does this all effect the Odds to Win? Let's find out:
Rob: 5-2. He's done it, he's made it to the top of the Odds. To think, I had him so low because I figured, who the hell would keep Rob around in this game? Well, he landed on the perfect tribe and has played a perfect game since. He is going to oust Andrea or Grant next week (barring Immunity wins by those two), and then eliminate the other the following week. He has the HII, and unless he is completely blindsided, he will be able to keep himself safe. As I have been saying for weeks, if Rob makes it to the Final Three, he wins. It is possible he could lose the final Immunity Challenge, but even if he does, he is going to have people there that have practically sworn a blood oath to him. Who would vote him out? Grant and Andrea, likely, but what are the chances the two of them are in the Final Four together? Even with the returning player from RI who will almost definitely vote out Rob, who is going to want to keep the RI winner around, especially if it's Matt? Rob is, as he has been this whole season, in the driver's seat.
Grant: 4-1. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but I have to believe Grant is going to attempt to oust Rob in a blindside. I don't think he has many opportunities to do it. Really, his only chance (because I think Rob will get to him before the Final Four when I suspect the RI winner will reenter the game) is this upcoming week. He needs to tell Andrea that Rob is plotting her demise, and then try to pull Phillip to create at least a tie vote, and roll the dice with the re-vote. The only problem with this is that Phillip seems to be truly aligned with Rob because he figures Rob will take him to the end because Phillip is acting crazy. If Grant can pull it off, he could win.
Andrea: 10-1. Poor Andrea. She just does not see the train that is about to run her down. She knows everyone will have to turn on each other next week, but does she have an inkling that she is the target? It doesn't seem like it. Further, even if she does know she is next on Rob's hit list, can she do anything about it? I'm not so sure. She better come up with a timely Individual Immunity win. If somehow she can stay though, she can beat Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum, and Phillip in a Final Vote, so that's why she doesn't drop down further.
Natalie: 17-1. Did Natalie speak this week? I really don't think she can win, but as they say here in New York City for the state lottery, "Hey, ya never know."
Ashley: 28-1. Ashley may be, hands down, the most annoying person to ever play this game. Seriously, does she have one redeeming quality? Is there anything about her that would make you want to spend more than two minutes talking to her? She is the definition of a Mean Girl, immediately mocking people as soon as someone turns his or her back. I know the show is being edited, and she's likely not as horrible in person, but come on.
Mike: 40-1. Mike seems in good spirits, and certainly has the ability to win a few more Duels and a Final Immunity Challenge. He's smart enough to maneuver his way into the Final Three, and from there, I bet he could make an argument that surviving on RI for as long as he will have is grounds for a victory. It's still a long shot, but Mike could move up the board pretty quickly.
Matt: 60-1. This poor guy. I'm actually feeling sorry for him. It is obvious that he is just spent. He looks emaciated, and clearly, has no vim nor vigor. I will not be surprised in the slightest if he continues to win Duels, but the Final Immunity Challenge has moved from a stamina Challenge in earlier seasons, to, usually, a grueling physical challenge. If it is one of the latter, how does Matt have enough in the tank to win? And he will have to win that final Challenge to make it into the Final Three because it would be insanity to let him see that Final Vote.
Phillip: 75-1. For the first time in a long time, Phillip's Odds are in double digits. Let's face it, he's going to make it to the Final Three, especially if Rob is there. As I said above for Natalie, once he makes it to that last vote, there is always the possibility he will win. It's not a large possibility, but it is a possibility nonetheless.
Ralph: 90-1. Ralph really had no shot once he gave up his HII. He's a dud in Challenges (though had a nice showing in the Log Roll), so I can't see him winning a number of Duels and making it back into the game. Sorry Ralph, but you're going to Ponderosa soon.
Steve: 110-1. Steve's renewed energy lasted exactly half an episode. I think this game just came at him harder then he ever expected. Nice guy, but now being in the RI part of the game, I can't see him reigniting his desire to win.
Alright, that's this week's Survivor: Redemption Island. What did you think of the episode? Are you upset no one on Ometepe has even attempted to oust Rob yet? Do you feel for Matt? Do you think he can make it back into the game, or is he just too wasted? Please leave your comments below. I'll be back next week (from San Diego!) with another recap. Until then, I'm off to my Saturday Log Rolling league.
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