Tribal Council. Jeff says to Ashley that after 35 days, it must feel good to be wearing the Immunity Necklace. She figured she needed to win it today. Grant says it was crucial that he win Immunity because he knows he's a target. Rob says the only thing going for him is that Grant might be a bigger threat than he is. Jeff asks Ashley about choosing Natalie to share the Reward. Ashley says it's not a shock that she and Natalie are so close. Jeff comments that her saying she is so close to Natalie sets bombs going off in the guys' ears. Natalie says the guys might want to vote her out because of her relationship with Ashley. Jeff then asks Rob what gets him through the game? rob stands and points to the back of his t-shirt which has a picture of his daughter. Amber knows how much he loves the game. What about Grant? He thinks about his soon-to-be wife. Her trust is a beautiful thing. Rob concludes by saying that this is the biggest vote they've had so far.
It's time to vote. Ashley votes for Grant. Jeff collects the votes. Rob doesn't play the Hidden Immunity Idol. The first vote is for Natalie, and the second is for Grant. Vote Three is for Grant. Jeff reads Vote Four: the fifteenth person voted out...Grant! Grant brings his torch to be snuffed and says, "See you guys shortly." Grant marches off into the Blue Light of Death, and Jeff comments that there are only four days left, but a lot of things standing between them and a million dollars, including a person coming back from RI.
Next Time On...Survivor!
It's Finale time! This SUNDAY, May 15th at 8:00pm EDT/PDT. There are two hours of the finale, and then the one hour reunion. Make sure you note the time change.
Well, it's always the way isn't it? Players have their sights set on one person to vote out, and then that person wins Immunity. I have to (begrudgingly) say, I was (begrudgingly) impressed by Ashley's Immunity Challenge victory. She had done absolutely nothing up until this point to stand out or show she deserved to win the game. I don't think she had been sandbagging her performance for the whole season, and then struck while the iron was hot in this Challenge. I think she just had a great performance in a favorable Challenge. That said, she at least now has something to hang her hat on in the Final Tribal Council, should she get there.
But will she get there? For my money, I don't think so. This is how I see this playing out. Rob will likely have his last opportunity to play the HII at the next Tribal Council, regardless of whether the person from RI comes back before the next Tribal Council, or the one following. So, he is automatically into the Final Four, unless he loses his mind and doesn't play it. I believe Mike will be the player to emerge from RI. He has "won" each of the Duels he has been in, and done so handily. It will be a nice story if Matt wins, and he certainly could, but I think Mike will emerge.
If Mike comes back before the next Tribal Council, he gets voted out immediately, unless he can participate in and win Immunity. If he does, I think Rob convinces Mike and Phillip, and probably Natalie to vote out Ashley to break up the couple. Even if they all conspire to vote out Rob, he should play his HII and then his vote will determine who goes home. If the RI winner doesn't come back until there are only three "regular" players left, Rob breaks up the girls by voting out Ashley, or Natalie if Ashley wins Immunity again.
When it gets to the Final Four, it's always a crap shoot. Rob will be gone unless he can win Immunity because both Phillip and Ashley are smart enough to vote him out so they can say to the Jury, "I voted out Rob." Same goes for the RI winner. Only Natalie might actually be dumb enough to keep Rob around. If Rob wins Immunity, I think he takes Natalie and Phillip and wins the game in a likely unanimous vote. If Natalie is voted out previously, so it is him, Phillip, Ashley and the RI winner, I think he takes Phillip and Ashley, so as to not give the RI winner a chance to make a case for him/herself. That vote probably goes down 6-3-0, Rob-Ashley-Phillip.
If Rob is voted out, no matter who is left will take Phillip along. He is hated by pretty much everyone and is a Final Vote black hole. If the RI winner somehow survives, that person likely wins a 5-4-0 or 6-3-0 vote. If it is a Phillip-Natalie-Ashley Final Three, I figure Ashley wins, maybe in a 4-3-2 vote, unless Natalie wins another Immunity Challenge, so she can argue that she won two Immunities, boosting her case for a victory.
Odds to Win
How it all plays out will be rather interesting, but which one of the above scenarios do I think is most likely? Let's turn to the Odds to find out:
Rob: 2-1. Could Rob screw up and not play his HII? Absolutely. Will that happen? The odds are probably 1,000,000-1. Rob will make it to the final Immunity Challenge, and depending on who he has to play against, he will likely win. Well, I feel the odds are the most in his favor, especially if any puzzle is involved, and this season, the producers have loved puzzles. It's pretty simple: if Rob wins the final Immunity Challenge, he wins the game because i really don't think this Jury is as vindictive as the ones from the last two seasons.
Natalie: 9-1. I have to keep Natalie this high, not necessarily because I think she will really win (as you can see above, I don't give her much of a shot in most of the scenarios), but because she is rather likely to be in the Final Three. As we have seen before (and seen with players named Natalie), anything can happen in the Final Vote. Again, I don't think she is likely to win, but there are too many variables for everyone else that Natalie must remain favored against the rest.
Mike: 17-1 (7-1). Mike has been coolly in control of each of the Duels he has been in. I just don't see how he loses one unless the last one is an endurance challenge, which I think Grant would take at this point. Mike's (and really everyone on RI) chances really depend on when he reenters the game. If it's prior to the next Tribal Council, his chances drop considerably as he would have to win back-to-back Immunity Challenges to prevent being voted out (If you were one of the remaining "regular" players, would you want the RI winner in the Final Three? I thought not.). If he comes back before the last Immunity Challenge, then his prospects improve dramatically as winning one Immunity Challenge to put himself in the Final Three is a lot easier. If the latter scenario is what occurs, I'd jump Mike's chances up to the number in the parentheses. I just think the former is what's going to happen, hence why I list Mike below Natalie). It's not enough of a penalty for being voted out of the game to come back just for the Final Immunity Challenge. We'll have to wait and see.
Matt: 18-1 (3-1). The same goes for Matt what I wrote above for Mike. In his case, I think he is slightly less likely to win the final Duel, as he has been handily beaten by Mike each week. If he does make it back into the game in that latter scenario, Matt likely wins the game easily. For Matt to make it to the Final Three, Rob would have to be gone, and if that is the case, who could possibly argue that Matt doesn't deserve to beat Phillip, Natalie, or Ashley? The guy will have survived on RI since DAY NINE! Yes, one could argue that he was voted out of the game twice, but he played by the rules and survived under even worse conditions than the regular players. If Matt winds up in the Final Three, he wins.
Grant: 19-1 (9-1). First, I don't think Grant will handle the Duel well. We saw how Ashley reacted to her first Duel: there's an anxiety to the Duels that must be mastered, and at this point in the game, the anxiety will be high. If, however, the Duel is an endurance challenge, Grant is in the best position simply because he's had more to eat and is in a better condition than the other three RI denizens. If he makes it back into the game, he has a shot of winning the Final Immunity Challenge, of course, but he is not necessarily a shoo-in in the Final Tribal Council because it could be argued that he just rode Rob's coattails. True, assuming he is up against some combination of Phillip, Natalie and Ashley, he could argue they all road Rob's coattails, but a Grant victory just wouldn't be as much of a slam dunk as Mike or Matt.
Ashley: 27-1. I will give Ashley credit, she actually won an Immunity Challenge. She's got a bit of game. I still think she is super annoying without any real friends on the Jury. She will have to win another Immunity Challenge to stay in the game (and if she has to go to RI, she's not winning a Duel against Mike and Matt), but if she does, I can see an avenue she can travel to victory. God, I hope that doesn't happen though.
Andrea: 38-1. Andrea did not look good during that Duel. Yes, she mounted a nice comeback to overtake Ralph, but I just don't see how she wins another Duel, and then an Immunity Challenge. If she can somehow find her way into the Final Three, she could have an argument for victory (I took out Rob (which she will have to do). I had no friends on my tribe. I was targeted from Day 1.). I just don't see all of the planets aligning that would allow this though.
Phillip: 49-1. Let's face it, Phillip is making the Final Three. It would be a Survivor crime for anyone to not take him to the end. He has pissed off just about everyone in the game with his antics, so he is likely to not garner any votes at the final Tribal Council. Then again, if he's in the Final Three........
So, it wouldn't be right if I didn't stick my neck out and actually predict how this all goes down. Here's my best guess. Final Duel: Mike wins, Matt cries. Mike reenters the game. Mike wins the Immunity Challenge. Everyone but Natalie, mobilizes against Rob, but Rob plays the HII. Rob and Natalie vote for Ashley. Ashley's gone. Final Immunity Challenge: Rob wins. Rob takes Phillip and Natalie to the Final Tribal Council. Rob finally gets his Survivor victory in a 8-1-0 vote (someone, probably Ralph, makes up some stupid reason to not vote for Rob). Jeff tries to figure out if Phillip is really a federal agent. Phillip says something weird. Jeff introduces Phillip to Coach and say they should play the game together. Russell says he would have won if he didn't have jealous idiots on his tribe. Rob wins the Fan Favorite award. Jeff announces next season is in.......I don't know.......the Falkland Islands or something. No, it will have to be closer to the Equator. Uh....Papua New Guinea.
What did you think of this week's episode? How do you see the Finale playing out? Do you agree with any of my scenarios above? Please leave your comments and theories below. Be sure to tune in this Sunday, May 15 at 8:00pm EDT/PDT for the season finale and reunion show. I'll be back Monday morning with my final recap and thoughts on the season. Until then, I'm off to reflect a bird in my alligator eye.
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