...Tribal Council. Jeff asks Kristina about being on the hot seat both times Ometepe has come to Tribal Council. Why does she always seem to be in trouble? Kristina replies that from the beginning of the game, she has been on the wrong side of the numbers. She is, however, determined to stay. Jeff turns to Natalie and asks about second chances: does Kristina deserve one? Kristina is nice and a strong player, Natalie responds, but they'll have to see what happens. Rob says it is like Kristina just joined the tribe. Jeff queries whether that means the tribe should be willing to give her a shot. Kristina answers by saying the weakest player should go. How does she define "weakest?" "Someone who is disruptive," she replies, clearly indicating Phillip. Kristina continues, calling out Phillip for not helping around camp. Jeff asks Phillip if he has ever heard that before in his life, that he is disruptive. No, he has not, and further, he does more at camp than Kristina. Phillip says he has a history with the tribe. They know what he is about and how he contributes. You see, he was honorably discharged from the Army and received the second-highest peace-time award for his work in field sanitation. It is clear he is a hard worker, but then he does admit he hasn't done any work for the last three days (more than 25% of their time there, mind you). Kristina concludes the discussion by saying she is smart and can be trusted if given the opportunity.
With that, it's time to vote. Phillip votes for Kristina and vice versa. Jeff grabs the votes and reads them out. The first vote is for Phillip, and the second is for Kristina. The two alternate the next four votes, leaving both Phillip and Kristina with three votes apiece, and one vote remaining. "The fourth person voted out of Survivor: Redemption Island....Kristina!" Kristina grabs her torch, Jeff snuffs it, and Kristina marches off into the Blue Light of Death (surprisingly not sponsored by Kmart). Jeff comments that running out of time was the theme at this Tribal Council. If they don't pick up their game, the tribe could run out of time.
Next Time On...Survivor!
Shifting alliances will create strange bedfellows. Stephanie and Krista learned well from Russell, whose devious ways cause a split in the Zapatera majority alliance.
This episode was great in the beginning, maintained greatness through the middle, and then quickly fell off a cliff at the end. As I was watching, I mentioned to my wife and friends that something weird must happen with the voting because the discussion at Tribal Council was so short. Nope! There just wasn't any drama about who was being voted out, so they sped through it. This happens in even the best seasons, so it's not a big deal. If anything it might be a nice palate-cleanser to move us into the Russell-Free portion of the game.
As far as what is coming up, how does Rob not make it to The Merge? The guy has his alliance eating from his hand, and he has the HII. Dude is riding high, and will likely not let his ego get the best of him. Over at Zapatera, it will be interesting to see if Krista and Stephanie really can force a wedge between the members of the majority alliance. They should each approach a different half of the alliance, saying they want to side with them to vote out a big player on the other side (Ralph or Sarita or whomever). Hopefully, this causes distrust within the majority and one of the targeted people flips out, and digs his or her own grave. It's risky, and not likely to work, but it's something.
Of course, whomever is voted out next will take on the winner of Matt versus Kristina on Redemption Island. Matt has proven strong in two Duels now, and while she is a physical player, I can't see Kristina taking out Matt. Look for Matt to win his third Duel in a row, and send Kristina home.
Odds to Win
While I may have posited that Russell could run the RI Duel table and make it back into the game, I was clearly dead wrong. Matt looked steady and really focused, not letting whatever mind games Russell was trying to play effect him. As a result, Matt stays alive, and the man who was never voted out, finally goes home. Russell threw his buff in the fire, but not without one last mindf*#k. Yes, Ralph played into his hands, but Russell took advantage and spilled all of Zapatera's secrets to Phillip and Kristina. Now, if it had been two other Ometepe members, the information may have been more damaging, as Kristina is now gone and Phillip is crazy. Nonetheless, Russell did leave his mark on the game and exposed the hubris contained in Ralph. Let's take a look at how this effected the Odds:
Mike: 2-1. We didn't see a lot of Mike in this episode, but sometimes, that's a good thing. There are a number of targets on Zapatera ahead of Mike so when it comes time to start voting out Zapatera members before or after The Merge, Mike should be safe for a while.
Steve: 6-1. Steve, too, is sitting rather pretty after managing to oust Russell. My concern for Steve is that when it comes time for Zapatera to cannibalize itself, Steve's personality is so big that he will place a target on his own back. He is the shield that will unwittingly keep Mike safe. Still, he is actually running the show over at Zapatera, which is a good position to be in at this point of the game.
Grant: 8-1. This guy, in every scene he is in with Rob, just looks like a dutiful soldier. He is clearly a physical stud, and is playing a great game by staying glued to Rob's hip. Is Grant smart enough to know when to backstab Rob, or is he just going to try to ride the Bostonian to the end of the game? Either way, I see Grant making it pretty darn close to the end.
Ashley: 10-1. Rob and Phillip are sucking up most of the oxygen over at Ometepe, but Ashley, like Grant, is playing a good game by staying true to Rob. She is very non-threatening, yet seems smart enough to know when and if she needs to make a move.
Julie: 12-1. I guess, karmically, throwing a Challenge to oust Russell was a good thing. I'll be honest, I'm loving Julie. She hasn't had the most screen time, but every time she is on, she is impressing me. She's superb in Challenges, and is very aware of what is going on around her in camp. In her pre-game interviews, Julie scared me off by saying she had a big mouth and was very opinionated, traits that are not a benefit in Survivor. As we have seen so far, however, she has been able to keep this attitude in check (which is much easier when you're winning, of course). If she can continue to do that, Julie is making the Final Three.
Rob: 17-1. If you had told me that four weeks into the season I would have Rob in my Top Six, I'd have said you were crazy. Yet, here he is. Rob has loyal followers and an HII. He is in the catbird seat and in complete control of his tribe. Really, the only reason he's not higher on the list is that someone, somewhere in this game must know that they need to blindside him. If Rob makes it to the Final Three, he wins. Hands down.
Andrea: 19-1. *Sigh* Again, I have no idea what to do with Andrea. She seems like a good competitor, but after Phillip is ousted by Ometepe, she's next on the hit list as she has been the only one "untrue" to Rob (at least in his eyes). If Ometepe could actually win some Challenges, and she can make it to The Merge, Andrea may be back in the game.
Ralph: 25-1. We've seen it before, and we'll see it again (especially with two more seasons!). Ralph's ego is his biggest obstacle to winning the game. This guy majorly screwed up, not once, not twice, but thrice in one episode! It was bad enough to literally crow after winning the Immunity Challenge, and show your alliance that you have the HII, but to show the other tribe that you have an HII is absolutely insane. Moreover, the only reason he did that was because Russell goaded him into it. What a moron.
David: 30-1. David is still in the majority alliance, but as we saw in the sneak peek for next week's episode, it appears David's attitude problems and feelings of superiority are about to make their way into the game. When there is a strong majority alliance, everyone in that alliance is waiting for the first person to screw up and become a target. David may do that next week.
Natalie: 45-1. Another loyal Rob's Army member. Natalie, however, doesn't seem assertive enough to actually win the game. She may make it to the Final Three, but what will she have done to get there besides ride coattails? If Ometepe keeps losing, she will have to make some kind of move to make it to the end, but until that time, I can't see her really having a shot to win.
Sarita: 50-1. I toyed with moving Sarita up higher, as she seems to have a nice hold on how to play the game, but with Russell calling her out as the leader of the tribe, that can't be good news post-Merge. Then again, maybe Russell targeted her at the Arena solely because she was there. I need one more week before making any big moves with Sarita.
Krista: 60-1. I keep Krista ahead of Natalie simply because she seems less annoying (and if I moved her lower, I'd have to admit I royally screwed up my initial Odds to Win!). When it comes down to it, unless these two really have some game that we haven't seen yet, they will be the next two voted out of Zapatera.
Matt: 70-1. Matt is doing the best he possibly can with the hand he has been dealt. After getting voted out for being friendly with a girl, he has had two big Duel victories, ousting Russell in the process. I still think winning approximately eight more Duels will be very tough, but it seems if anyone can do it, it's Matt.
Stephanie: 120-1. Continuing the above with Krista, Stephanie thinks she is some sort of mastermind who is going to hoodwink the competition. I'm sorry, but she is about as transparent as Saran wrap. She has the largest target on her back at Zapatera, so she will likely be the next to go, assuming Zapatera ever loses a Challenge. Her and Krista's plan should be to win every Immunity Challenge until The Merge and then quickly flip to Ometepe
Kristina: 150-1. Kristina's ouster was a pure case of aligning oneself with the wrong players on Day 1. Yes, she may have played a bit aggressively in trying to find the HII right off the bat, but really, Kristina did nothing "wrong" that precipitated her elimination. Could she beat Matt in a Duel? Possibly, but I don't see her winning the next eight here on out.
Phillip: 300-1. Man, the Reunion special is going to be a hell of a lot of fun with this guy, huh?
Alright, that was week number four for Survivor: Redemption Island. What did you think of the episode? Are you happy or sad to see Russell (finally) gone? Can you see a scenario in which Rob doesn't make The Merge? Do you think Ralph can get his ego in check? Please drop your questions, comments and theories below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to bitch slap all of them.
Follow: twitter.com/tvovermind
Follow: twitter.com/MikeNJD
Email: michael@tvovermind.com
