...Tribal Council. Jeff welcomes them an instructs them to each grab a torch to get fire, their life in the game. Jeff asks Dawn if there has been any talk of RI. She says that they wonder if they're prepared for it. She further admits that the first two days she completely lost who she was, and in the process, lost a lot of confidence, but she's better now. Jeff asks Elyse who else might be worried about the vote? She answers Semhar, because of her Challenge performance. Semhar says she gave it her all. She could have played it easy and let someone take the shots, but she stepped up. Jeff then asks Dawn who else might be worried? She responds Cochran, based solely on his physical strength. Cochran says he flew through the net like a hummingbird. When Jeff turns the conversation to Mark, asks Jeff to call him Papa Bear. He then says John hesitated at the Challenge wall, and while that is not a fatal mistake, it's a weakness. Cochran wants to answer that so he tells Jeff he better not say "it is time to vote" right now. He is so nervous that he forgets Semhar's name, eventually saying that she doesn't do anything around camp. Cochran says he is a learner by nature. It's absolutely heartbreaking that he might be first one to go. If he stays, he promises he will do whatever he has to around camp. Semhar thinks he's so mesmerized by the game that he's not actually playing it.
With that, it is time to vote. They do, and Jeff gathers the votes. The first is for Cochran, but the second through fourth are all for Semhar. Jeff reads the sixth vote, "The first person voted out of Survivor: South Pacific....Semhar!" As Semhar has her torch snuffed, Keith says they should have taught her how to make a fire. Jeff tells Savaii that they made the decision that people can improve. Now it's time to see if that is true.
Next time on...Survivor!
Cochran is at the bottom of the totem pole, so he reinvents himself as a working machine around camp. Brandon confesses that his secret is weighing on his conscience, which awakens the Dragon Slayer.
I have to say, for the season premiere, that was a pretty great episode. The 90-minute run-time certainly helped because it allowed the show to give almost all 18 players a bit of the spotlight (save Keith, Whitney, and to a certain extent Albert. Hey, they are all my odds-on favorites!). I really loved the initial Ozzy/Coach Duel (you could tell that the puzzle was really hard), and that was one of the better Survivor obstacle courses. There seems to be a good mix of people, with some interesting personalities. I can't say I am surprised Semhar was the first one out (she was in my second to last spot and the biggest underdog on Savaii), and as she said pre-game that she was super scared of Redemption Island, I'm positive we won't have Semhar back in the game. All in all, a great start to the season that seemed to confirm my initial reactions to the cast.
Odds to Win
As a person from the absolute bottom of my Odds actually was the first one voted out, there isn't too much movement in the Odds after episode one. We did learn a few things about these folks, though, so let's see how the Odds to Win were effected. Remember, this is not a prediction of the order in which the players will be voted out, but their likelihood to be the Sole Survivor.
Albert: 4-1. I believe Albert spoke all of one time on camera in the premiere, and that wasn't even a to-camera confessional. But, man, did you see him lift Brandon over the wall? that was an impressive feat of strength. Brandon is not a small guy and Albert pulled him up a ten foot wall like he was nothing...or Cochran. Upolu has the early numbers advantage so nothing here to knock down my odds-on favorite.
Whitney: 5-1. Like Albert, Whitney received very little screen time, and the time she was on, she was in her bra and underwear (not that anyone here is complaining). It is a bit worrisome to me that she, Albert and Keith didn't get much face time as usually the show wants to make sure the audience recognizes the eventual winner early in the season (not that they want us to know who the winner is, but rather so they can build a story for the season), but again, she didn't take anything off the table so Whitney stays where she was.
Mikayla: 11-2. Mikayla has no fan in the "pious" Brandon because evidently being strong and taking the lead on building a shelter is too...promiscuous? Too sexy? Too lascivious? I don't know what, but suffice it to say that I was impressed by the energy Mikayla was putting out at camp. Throw in her complete owning of the Challenge, and I wouldn't be surprised if Mikayla quickly finds herself the favorite. (and Go Jersey!!)
Keith: 8-1. See "Albert" and "Whitney" above. The only time Keith uttered a word was his comment after Semhar's departure, but I can see Keith playing the strong, silent type, at least for a while. His scar didn't seem all that noticeable, so, hopefully for him, he won't really have to explain it. Like Mikayla, Keith was a superstar in the Challenge, so I look forward to his continued success in that realm.
Dawn: 10-1. Dawn, Dawn, Dawn. Much like Holly in Nicaragua, Dawn was completely overwhelmed in the first couple days by the actual stakes and conditions of the game, and had a minor meltdown. To be honest, I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. Fortunately, she turned to Ozzy who didn't see her emotional state as a weakness, but as an opportunity to win someone's allegiance. I think Dawn is better now, and was certainly a plus in the Challenge, so hopefully my early faith in her won't prove to be misplaced.
Edna: 16-1. Another player that received a bit of short shrift, I thought Edna helping out Coach was a brilliant game move (that probably wasn't an actual "move" but rather just Edna being nice). The gesture immediately endeared Edna to Coach, although interestingly, she wasn't among the five Coach was working hard to convince should align themselves. Hopefully we'll get a bit more Edna next week so I can have a better feel for her and her game.
Brandon: 20-1. It's been three days, and, according to the preview of next week's episode, Brandon already can't keep his family tree a secret. He seriously thought he would be able to keep his shirt on the entire game? Seriously?!? All he has done is draw the attention of Sophie the Observant. Fortunately for Brandon, he finds himself in the Coach's Five alliance, so maybe he will be safe for a while, especially as he is an asset in Challenges. Something tells me that his secret, however, is going to be his downfall.
Rick: 22-1. Rick had a shining moment as he hacked through those ropes in the Challenge with great alacrity (yes, we'll look past the fact that his digging cost his tribe the lead and nearly the Challenge). As such a huge fan of the show, he appears to really know where to push and pull so far, allowing himself to be in an alliance with Coach, despite his reticence to get close to the veteran. This could be a really savvy move by the rancher, so we'll have to see where that alliance goes from here.
Jim: 24-1. Jim is setting himself up to be Ozzy's main antagonist at Savaii. He doesn't trust Ozzy's courting of the women on the tribe (wisely), and doesn't appear to be worried about calling out tribemates for their inability to perform (perhaps unwisely). As I noted in my preview of the players, Jim's greatest obstacle to success is his own ego. He thinks he is the best, not only Survivor player, but human to walk the planet. Such players are usually hoisted on their own petard sooner rather than later. Right now, the tribe needs him for Challenges, but with one more episode of confrontation is going to find Jim tumbling down this Odds board.
Ozzy: 25-1. Like Rob last season, Ozzy is setting himself up to go far in the game. He already seems to have a solid alliance around him, even after losing Semhar. Being down a player already, there's no way in hell the tribe will vote him out as long as there are tribal Challenges to be won. I'm not exactly sure that he will be able to shake his veteran status post-Merge, but so far, so good for Ozzy.
Elyse: 26-1. I don't have much to say about Elyse. Didn't bring anything to the table, didn't take anything away. For whatever reason, I find Whitney to be more compelling and better positioned to advance in the game, but as I said in my preseason Odds to Win colum, these two players might be interchangeable.
Sophie: 30-1. The "smartest player in the game" certainly is observant (hence my nickname "Sophie the Observant" above). She pinned Brandon immediately as hiding something, and was smart enough to find a majority alliance immediately. Compared to the rest of her tribe, she is a weak link in Challenges (at least physical ones), and like Jim, her ego might be her downfall. Sophie is definitely a candidate for major Odds board movement. Which direction will be interesting to see.
John: 45-1. A near early exit for Survivor's biggest fan. Semhar is right, Cochran's love of the game might actually be a great detriment to his gameplay. If he can't get past his excitement of just being there, he will quickly find himself on Redemption Island. Now, from the previews for next week, it appears he will put his nose to he grindstone in an effort to prove himself worthy of remaining in the game. This is probably the best prescription for what is ailing Cochran: keep your head down, don't be noticeable. Because if there is anything Cochran was over the first three days, it was noticeable.
Coach: 49-1. Coach gets to move up a spot because after some initial bumps in the road, he may have found a place amongst his tribe. Sure, Rick and Sophie are wary of him, but he is a good Challenge participant and will likely, at least in the beginning, be able to keep his personality in check in favor of blending in to the tribe. Plus, Upolu now has a man advantage in the game, so that doesn't hurt either.
Christine: 51-1. It is amazing how hard it is for some people to not say everything that is on their minds. Seriously, why would Christine utter something as stupid and boastful as "They're temporary players"? I'm sure Jeff eggs them on, but why draw a huge target on yourself from the get-go not just drawing the ire of the people she was commenting on, but from the rest of her tribe who now see that Christine is playing the game hardcore? Oh! And she went looking for the HII immediately! Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb -- especially from someone who will likely be more of a liability in Challenges than an asset.
Mark-Anthony: 62-1. Oh, Papa Bear. Such a nice guy, so super sweet, but I fear likely out of his depth. Yes, he was wise to snag Dawn immediately and swear fealty, but where else can he find an alliance? With Jim, I suppose, but likely nowhere else. I could see Mark lasting for a while, especially if Savaii is able to win a few Immunity Challenges in a row, but after Cochran (or perhaps before), who is next in line for expulsion? the answer is, likely and unfortunately, Mark.
Stacey: 151-1. Ok, Stacey isn't the first person to not see something obvious on a reality show, but missing that clue was just foolish. Stacey did nothing in the episode to give me any confidence that she could somehow win the game. Therefore, she continues to reside at the bottom.
Semhar: Eleventy billion-1. She was pretty useless physically, and now in the one place she dreaded more than anything else, Redemption Island, I think it is good night Gracie for Semhar. Seriously, can you see Semhar pulling a Matt and winning umpteen straight Duels? Yeah, me neither. Semhar, you are lovely, but you are outta here!
Alright! So that was the premiere of Survivor: South Pacific! What did you think? Were Ozzy and Coach able to ingratiate themselves with their tribes? Any of the newbies stand out to you, for good or for ill? Who are you keeping your eye on as we move into the next couple episodes? What did you think of the first Duel and Challenge (personally, I thought they were awesome. Great work by the production team)? Do you agree with my current Odds, or would you change them? Please leave your questions and comments below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to be one of the zeros in 90210.
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I think the person who ended up impressing me the most was Mikayla. Very impressive performance. And some of the silent guys might step up more and make a move. Interesting opening. It was almost a replay of Redemption Island with Ozzy playing Rob and Coach Russell and yet, by the end of the show, it really felt like Coach was playing smarter.
I loved Ozzy in Cook Islands but I think he really needs someone to lead him like Yul. He tends to get too easily distracted by . . . . .females? LOL. I definitely don't see him pulling a Boston Rob here. The thing I'm hoping for is the return of more water challenges. I love them and they've been severely lacking in the last few seasons. Great review!