The Long Shots
Sophie: 30-1. In the first half of Survivor's history, you may remember that towards the end of the season, one player would win a Reward Challenge (remember them?!?) and the Reward would be a car. The problem was, not one person who won the car won the game itself. Eventually (after Survivor: Fiji) the show stopped giving away the car because people wouldn't want it (see Yau-Man giving the car to Dreamz in Fiji). In essence, winning the car was bad juju to be avoided. I mention all of this because there is a new cause of bad juju: declaring yourself the "smartest player in the game." Every season (most recently David in Redemption Island) there is one contestant who make this declaration and they never get near the end of the game. This season, that player is Sophie. She's young, smart, and believes herself to be a "strong woman" in the mold of the best female players in Survivor history. Too bad she went and placed a curse on herself.
John: 37-1. John came close to pulling a Sophie and declaring himself the smartest player in the game, but instead, he just said he was the biggest student of the game (a close cousin of "smartest player"). In John's case, however, this isn't braggadocio -- he may, in fact, be Survivor's biggest fan. That should help him, initially, in developing a strategy, but I fear his personality and likely constant spouting of Survivor facts might annoy the crap out of his tribemates. He admits that he is a physical liability, so unless he has a Cesterninian game, John will not make the Jury.
Christine: 43-1. Brassy New Yorkers are a wonderful bunch (I count many amongst my relatives). They're fun to be around, and their bravado is endearing...to a point. If I had to spend 39 days, 24 hours a day, with one of my relatives, I'd likely go crazy. Thus, Christine's largest challenge is illustrated. I love the fact that she hates quitters, and called out the Survivor casting department for, well, casting the show with personalities instead of competitors, but she doesn't seem all that physically able, and you can almost guarantee her attitude is going to grate on her tribemates as soon as their bellies are empty and they are on a Challenge losing streak. I hope Christine gets far enough that Probst has a reason to talk to her at the reunion, because she will be entertaining, but I just don't see how she's not one of the first three voted off her tribe.
Coach: 57-1. Coach has all of the liabilities of a veteran returning to the game, and none of the assets Ozzy brings to the table. Well, I suppose he will be a plus in Challenges, but I can just envision his Dragon Slayer shtick really rubbing the newbies the wrong way -- they've heard it all before, and likely want nothing to do with his shenanigans this time around. He already has one member of his tribe, Rick, who wants to see him gone immediately. How many others share Rick's sentiment? If Coach makes the Merge it will be only because his tribe utterly dominates the other, or something goes really wacky. I'd bet on neither, and a quick exit for Coach.
Mark-Anthony: 65-1. Mark seems like a really great guy. He's accomplished a lot in his career and has faced some very hard times (both his responsibilities after 9/11 and his coming out to his NYPD brethren). He has the makeup of someone who could do very well on Survivor....if he was fifteen years younger. As he is already doubting what his body can take before the game has even started, I feel Mark is in over his head. He will be entertaining. He'll get a long well with his tribe, but he is a Challenge liability and will likely be gone quickly.
Semhar: 83-1. I have a rule when considering Survivor contestants: if you say, pre-game, that you're not looking forward to being in nature, or being smelly, or are generally complaining about the conditions while you're being interviewed in a hotel and haven't stepped foot out into the wild, you aren't winning the game. NaOnka came the closest, but she eventually succumbed to her true nature. Hopefully, Semhar will at least be able to craft a nice spoken word poem before she exits.
Stacey: 127-1. I have a rule when considering Survivor contestants: if you are absolutely stone-cold boring in your pre-game interviews, you aren't winning the game. Seriously, how could you watch either of her public interviews and say to yourself, "Self, I really think Stacey has what it takes to master the social aspect of this game and win the whole thing."? You can't. Yes, Stacey assures us that she is "a hustler" and "devious," but methinks the lady doth protest too much. If Stacey actually puts one over on anyone else in the game, I will gladly admit I'm wrong.....and then streak my neighborhood. Something tells me I'm not going to have to worry about embarrassing my wife and daughter.
(Note: I realize that I named two women of color as the least likely to win. Before anyone take any offense to this, please know that it is merely coincidental. My Odds are based solely on the players' bios, their CBS and Entertainment Weekly interviews, and my extensive knowledge of Survivor. Race does not factor in the slightest. Just so we're clear.)
Alright, that’s where I think the players stand heading into tonight’s premiere. What do you think? Do you have a beef with my Odds? Is there anyone you think should be higher or lower? Who are your favorites? Do you think Redemption Island will play out any differently? How well do you think Coach and Ozzy will do? Please leave your comments below. I’ll be back tomorrow morning, and every Thursday morning, with a recap of Wednesday’s episode, and a new Odds to Win. Thanks for reading. Let’s have a great season!
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