Next time on...Survivor!
The pressure begins to get to Savaii, and Jim specifically. Meanwhile, Ozzy has an Idol, and Brandon struggles with the damage his lies have caused.
Two episodes in, and I have to admit I am already loving this season. There are some really interesting players, who are making some fascinating plays so far. I mean, it's a shame that another Hantz is becoming so important to the season, but this kid is incredible. Yes, Mikayla is very attractive, but we haven't been shown one second of tape where she was somehow trying to seduce Brandon, thereby putting his marriage in some sort of danger. If anything, the show has gone out of its way to show how much of a tomboy and asexual Mikayla has acted so far, making Brandon's obsession with her all the more incredible. Throw in the excellent games Ozzy and Coach are playing so far, and I have been wholly satisfied with the opening of the season.
As far as next week is concerned, I wouldn't be surprised if these tribes alternate Immunity Challenge wins, though I still do think Savaii is a stronger tribe. The Duel between Semhar and Christine might end up rivaling the one between Becky and Sundra where neither could make fire. Whomever wins, we are all losers for having to watch. Look also for Brandon to quickly find himself on the outs with his tribe and alliance, with everyone talking about how they don't trust him, but no one actually doing anything about it and instead voting out Stacey should they have to back to Tribal Council. More important than all of this though is how this week's episode effected the Odds to Win.
Odds to Win
Again, not much movement in the Odds this week as Christine was always a long-shot to win, and a couple players (Whitney and Papa Bear) literally did not appear on-screen outside of the Challenges. There was one big mover, however, and I'm sure you can guess who it is and in what direction (Russell might not want to read this....)
Albert: 7-2. The only thing negative that happened for Albert was the fact that Upolu lost a member of the tribe. He seems firmly ensconced in Coach's alliance, and is still a Challenge beast. Albert is well on his way to the Merge and Jury. He seemed so calm, reasonable and even-handed at Tribal Council that I can't imagine a scenario at this point where Albert would piss people off enough that they'd want to vote him out. All this equals Albert still being the favorite.
Whitney: 5-1. Seriously, did you see Whitney on the episode at all? She was in th Challenge, I know that, but otherwise, she was like a ghost. Granted, more time was spent at Upolu as they went to Tribal Council. To be honest, at this point, not making a show of yourself is a good strategy. I would like to see something from Whitney soon though, lest she end up being a floater (sorry, Big Brother word) that is eventually unceremoniously dumped somewhere in the middle of the game.
Keith: 7-1. Keith moves up a spot both on his own regard, and because of the situation surrounding Mikayla. Keith, like Albert, is firmly in Coach's alliance, and is clearly necessary for Challenges. He is, however, quite wary of what Coach is doing in the assembling of said alliance, and seems to know to keep himself one step ahead of the veteran. Loyalty until it is advantageous not to be is the name of the game in Survivor, and it appears it is a lesson well learned by Keith.
Mikayla: 9-1. Poor Mikayla. How could she have guessed that her grit, determination, and general "not attempting to be sexy" would be so alluring to Brandon. I have never seen such an irrational hatred of someone before on this show. I'm not saying Brandon's beliefs are invalid, far from it, but Mikayla has done nothing to try to seduce Brandon in the slightest. It's the South Pacific, in summer. It's hot. They are often in the water. Ergo, Mikayla is going to wear a bathing suit. A lot. It would be a real shame if Mikayla is undone because of Brandon's insecurities, but at least for now, it appears Coach has reined him in. Nevertheless, she has to drop down a bit because she is clearly in the spotlight over at Upolu.
Edna: 12-1. I like the game Edna is playing. She's sweet, she's nice, and she has the Dragon Slayer as a confidant and protector. Her attempt at lying to Christine (about Sophie being the subject of the pow wow when Sophie was in the pow wow) was a bit misguided, but not impossible from which to recover. She is rightly aware that she is at the bottom of the tribal hierarchy at the moment, but with attention now squarely focused on Mikayla and Brandon, I figure Edna will be able to bore herself deeper into the alliance.
Dawn: 19-1. Dawn came very close to spiraling down the Odds board, but I had to stop and think, and realize that I was overreacting to her inability to get the keys down from Savaii's pole in the Immunity Challenge. I first thought that this was yet another bit of unflattering light shining upon her, another nail in the coffin, but upon ruminating about it again, I realized that Savaii won the Challenge. Errors like hers are quickly forgotten in the joy of victory. Moreover, errors like hers (small ones) are quickly forgotten in three days playing Survivor. Yes, she is likely still on the chopping block after Papa Bear, but she has an opportunity to prove herself, like Cochran. She should be warned though, another off performance and she will tumble down this Board (I know she's super, super scared!).
Rick: 20-1. There wasn't much of Rick in this episode, but like some of the others above, he finds himself a strong and able player firmly set in the tribe's majority alliance. I know he professed a dislike for Coach pregame, but he seems to be working well with the veteran. Not sure I have much more to say, so I will just tip my Stetson to the rancher.
Ozzy: 24-1. Well, Ozzy found the HII. I shouldn't be surprised, and I suppose I'm not. I'm more disappointed. Oh, not in Ozzy, who is playing brilliantly so far, but rather in the Survivor producers for not hiding the HIIs well, or better yet, eliminating them all together (Seriously. How great would it be if players thought there were HIIs to be had, but there weren't? The paranoia would be insane!). This is not Ozzy's fault. As I said, he is playing very well, has a solid alliance, and has a first tribal Immunity under his belt. Yes, he has to be wary of Keith (to a certain extent), but otherwise, he is riding high, and with a timely play of the HII, he can make it near the Final Four.
Jim: 25-1. Jim benefits from Savaii's win at the Immunity Challenge and Brandon's precipitous drop. He thinks he is running his tribe, with his 3+2 Plan, but I must admit I chuckled at Keith's confessional mocking Jim's confidence. As was seen in the preview for next week's episode, Jim might be starting to lose it, so I wouldn't be surprised if he falls down the Board next week. I have a feeling that is a scenario more likely to happen sooner rather than later.
Elyse: 28-1. Elyse is part Native American. She evidently believes this gives her the inherent ability to fish. Elyse is delusional in this belief. I have a sneaking suspicion Elyse will play the part of Natalie from last season, and just be a reliable vote that gets her near the Finals, but with no real expectation of winning. Show me something Elyse!
Sophie: 35.1-1. Like others, Sophie is in Coach's alliance, and is hyper aware of Brandon and his shenanigans. My problem with her is that she seems to take offense to everything. I'm not sure if that is a proper description, but in every confessional, she seems pissed off that someone would affront her intelligence or dare to play the game in a way differently than her. This type of attitude will only get you so far (like Top 9). As far as we've seen, she hasn't mouthed off yet to anyone in her tribe, but I have a feeling that blow up isn't too far away.
Brandon: 35.2-1. Here's out big loser for the week. Brandon, seriously dude, what the Hell is going on? As I said above in my piece about Mikayla, I respect your ethics, and understand where you're coming from, but what has Mikayla done to make you think of her as a latter-day Salome? She has done nothing but kick some ass both at camp and in Challenges. She isn't hitting on you, she isn't strutting in front of you, she isn't using her feminine wiles on you. Everything you are seeing is in your head, and it's going to get you booted out of this game. Moreover, what the Hell are you doing confessing to lying and throwing other players under the bus?!?! If your ethics are that strong that you can't lie in a situation where everyone else is lying because they are supposed to, you have no business being in the game. None.
Coach: 43-1. Coach continues his long, but steady, march up the Odds to Win Board. He is the head of the majority alliance on Upolu. He is a strength in Challenges. He can even be ridiculously frank with his tribemates and not be hated because of it. I still think he has a major target on his back, but I don't foresee a scenario where enough people on his tribe could successfully collude behind his back to blindside him. Everyone's attention is now on Brandon, and Stacey should go long before Coach, so the Dragon Slayer should likely make the Merge, but absent an HII like Ozzy has, I can't see players allowing him to get near the Final Four.
John: 52-1. I applaud Cochran's newfound desire to be an asset around camp. Unfortunately, he is still a major liability in Challenges. He may indeed make the Merge if Savaii rolls off a couple Challenge wins, but I don't see him sniffing the Finals.
Mark-Anthony: 67-1. I think I caught a glimpse of Mark during the Challenge, but I could be wrong. No reason to move him up. Unfortunately for him, he's still one of the next two in line for ouster at Savaii.
Christine: 371-1. After her opening comment upon seeing the veterans, was there any doubt Christine would be one of the first players out? No "loudmouth" player has ever won Survivor (Boston Rob was loud and opinionated, but never insulted people....to their faces anyway), and Christine will not be the first. The only reason she's not lower is because I can't conceive of a way she would lose a Duel to Stacey or Semhar.
Stacey: 372-1. With her only alliance member now gone (Christine), how can Stacey possibly survive in this game? Well, Upolu could sweep the remaining tribal Immunity Challenges and then Stacey could switch allegiances after the Merge, that's how. Stop laughing. No, seriously, stop. It could happen. OK, it won't happen. Ergo, Stacey will be the next person voted out of Upolu.
Semhar: Eleventy billion-2. I almost made her odds worse thank last week because of her terrible poem, but I figured that would just be kicking someone when she was down. I'm better than that (though not much).
That's it for this week's edition of Survivor. What did you think of the episode? Was Brandon out of his mind to try to pull off his lies? Is Coach as safe in his position as he thinks he is? Will Ozzy actually know how to best use his HII? Please leave your questions and comments below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to use the machete, even though my mom told me not to.
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