Odds to Win
Another week, another of the longest of long shots is eliminated (my absolute longest, actually). Though while there isn't a lot of positional movement, some people saw their numerical odds change a bit after some important Challenge performances, and intra-tribal machinations. Let's check out the Odds to Win, back in regular analysis format (except a special treat for one Survivor!).
Albert: 7-2. I have to say, I'm a little disappointed in my pre-season favorite. As the biggest guy out there, I figured Albert would rock the weight-bearing Challenge, but he was beat out by both Jim and Brandon not only in time spent in the Challenge, but also weight borne. I had to make his Odds a bit longer because of the Challenge performance. He didn't take a bigger hit because it's not actually a bad thing that he was eliminated relatively early: now he may seem less a physical threat for later in the game.
Whitney: 4-1. When was the last time we heard Whitney engage someone else in strategy talk? No, last week when Keith told her about Ozzy's HII doesn't count: she just took in the information and talked strategy with the camera. She didn't take an important role in the Challenge, so there really isn't much from this episode to consider in Whitney's Odds. She does, however, seems to be in the catbird seat at her tribe. She's in the majority alliance, and no one seems to want to try to eliminate her (as opposed to Elyse, who is targeted by Jim, and Jim who is targeted by Ozzy and Keith).
Keith: 7-1. Like Albert, I was disappointed in Keith's Challenge performance. Now, I'm 5'9" and 153 pounds. After a week of Survivor, I'd probably only be able to hold up about 60 pounds, so I shouldn't criticize, but I was looking for a little hunger from Keith. Then again, like Albert, his "weakness" may be a benefit later in the game, and with no one else making a big move to better his or her position, Keith stays in the same slot.
Mikayla: 23-2. It appears Mikayla has been able to she a bit of the spotlight that Brandon thrust upon her. Even with Stacey gone, there are currently at least two people in front of her on the chopping block: Edna and Brandon, and possibly Sophie. I'm a bit surprised Mikayla didn't participate in the Challenge. One would think her strength would have been a major asset, but as that Challenge is designed for goats/heroes, perhaps it is better for her that she didn't participate. You can see how far it got Stacey.
Dawn: 13-1. That is two great Challenge performances in a row for the teacher from Utah. Seriously, Dawn was bad-ass, not letting go when the pole had slipped all the way down her back and tilted over. Dawn said it herself: she needed a huge Challenge performance to show her tribe that she is an asset to the tribe. As we know, Ozzy likes her, and after Cochran is summarily dismissed, he may be willing to fold Dawn into his alliance in favor of Jim, especially if Jim moves against the alliance to oust Elyse. By that point, the game will be moving into The Merge where physically weaker, but loyal players are key allies. If I was Ozzy, I'd much rather have Dawn at my side than Jim, no?
Rick: 16-1. Rick spoke!! Rick spoke!! Well, sorta. I believe he said, literally, two words: "He snores." Rick just keeps rolling along, moving with his alliance. I'm waiting to hear something, anything from him about wanting to eliminate Coach, but I think as long as he is in no danger of being voted out (which he is not), Rick will be more than content with floating along.
Edna: 19-1. Edna had to take a hit with all of the negative press she received from her tribemates this episode. If that many people find you annoying, whether or not it is warranted, there is a good chance that they are going to find a reason to send you home. Upolu has a reason: Edna is the physically weakest player on the tribe and because we are still four eliminations away from The Merge, it is likely Edna will go home -- unless, the focus can move squarely on Brandon.
Now, Edna has been kind enough to read these recaps and follow me on Twitter (Edna's Twitter account is @BareEase). She liked the haiku last week, but challenged me to write limericks. So, in a tribute to Edna, here is one about her:
There once was an anesthesiologist
Whose ally was a veteran monologist
Not one of The Five
She stayed barely alive
It's time to become a better anthropologist.
What do you think? I mean, come on, I rhymed anesthesiologist!
Sophie: 22-1. Sophie, still wary of Brandon; still not doing anything about it. I know, at this point in the game, those that make waves find their torches snuffed, but Sophie proclaimed herself the smartest player in the game. To prove such, she needs to start maneuvering to oust the players she sees as roadblocks to her path to the Final Three. If she hates Brandon so much, she should be doing something to eliminate him. I fear her hesitance (and her ego) may be her undoing.
Ozzy: 28-1. Yes, Ozzy already has a number of people on his tribe looking to eliminate him. Yes, once he makes it to The Merge he will be Public Enemy Number One. Yes, I should probably have him farther down the Odds Board. Despite all of this, however, he still has an HII, and he is still a threat to win a number of Individual Immunity Challenges and/or Redemption Island Duels. Moreover, everyone else is in a whole lot worse shape to win the game than Ozzy is.
Coach: 33-1. Well, except maybe Coach. I don't know what is going to happen next week with the "Benjamin" situation, but Coach is clearly in control of Upolu, with a number of targets ahead of him on the block. Moreover, once he makes it to The Merge, people will likely focus on Ozzy and not Coach, allowing him to solidify mutating alliances, and make promises he has no intention of keeping. Still, without an HII nor a proven history of Individual Challenge wins, Coach has to stay behind Ozzy.
Jim: 41-1. I know, above, I took Sophie to task for not putting her money where her mouth is and making a move. That's Sophie. Jim, on the other hand, should be highly wary of his own gameplay at the moment. Yes, he may consider himself at the bottom of the five-person Ozzy alliance, but if he does the quick math, eliminating Cochran and Dawn before Elyse (and staying true to his alliance) will get him to The Merge where there will be ample opportunity to turn his back on Ozzy and Savaii. He's trying to make a move of three against four, and hoping to flip Keith or Whitney. Obviously, Jim isn't privy to what we know about what Keith and Whitney know regarding Ozzy's HII, but I just don't think Jim's strategy is likely to pay off at this point.
Elyse: 57-1. She has Ozzy's protection, and she still sits in the majority alliance, even against Jim's maneuvering. Jim, however, can't be the only one to notice Elyse's relationship with Ozzy. While they are still in the tribal portion of the game, that means the target will be on her, rather than Ozzy, who is needed for Challenges. She should be able to make it to The Merge, but there is certainly the possibility that she could be sacrificed before then.
John: 69-1. Cochran is playing on borrowed time. Honestly, what does he bring to the game and his tribe? Yes, he's seemed to tone down his "I love Survivor!" personality, but how is he not the next eliminated if Savaii loses a Challenge? I don't think Jim can garner enough votes to get rid of Elyse, and Dawn has proven herself an asset to the tribe. Sorry Cochran, but you better hope Savaii has excellent meat ripping skills next week.
Brandon: 77-1. Flabbergasted. That is what I am. Sure, the apologies are well-attempted, and necessary from a game standpoint, but no one on the tribe is buying them. Moreover, I have never seen a smackdown on a player like Coach gave Brandon this week. Brandon has completely lost it. He has no idea how to play this game socially. Yes, he was massively impressive in the Challenge (and I'm sure when he watched it last night he was struck by his own "Jesus on the cross"-like pose he struck), and Edna could go before him, but there is no way in bloody Hell that boy has the mental toughness to make it through this game.
Christine: 165-1. I will admit it, I'm really starting to like Christine. She is displaying a steel cold attitude in dispatching players at the Arena, and with Stacey her next foe, and then likely Cochran, Edna or Dawn in some succession, Christine may actually have a Matt-type run. The lady has got some skills, and she is putting them to good use in the Duels. Still, she has a looooong way to go before reentering the game, so the Odds are still stacked against her.
Stacey: 9,999,999-1. Perhaps her ouster was unfair insofar as she was not the weakest player on her tribe, but alliances are formed quickly in this game, and Stacey found herself on the outside from the get-go. It was only a matter of time before she was cast aside as dead weight. Stacey does have a good shot at beating Christine in next week's Duel, but I can't see her going much farther than that.
Well, that was this week's episode of Survivor. What did you think of the episode? How much longer do you think Brandon can survive? Would Upolu really get rid of Brandon before Edna? Is there a real underground threat to Ozzy over at Savaii? Please leave your questions and comments below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to haunt you with my little laugh.
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I hate to be 'that guy', but the meat off the spit isn't a new challenge. It is one of my all time favourites from Amazon. I have been waiting 17 season for them to bring it back!
You have to wonder how much they eat and how much they drop off!
I agree about the the 'forgotten' survivors, i mean there are one or to each season but there are so may this year. I also would like to see separate reward and immunity challenges- surely we CBS could have 90 minute episodes or 2 hour (if only it were on NBC!)
Brandon is too much, he says he is out there to reclaim the family name. don't see how being a whiney bitch is going to do that. I mean Russell was one of the greatest survivors ever, Brandon is hurting the family name!
Hey Tom.
No, totally be "that guy"! I completely forgot about the meat Challenge in the Amazon. Honestly, I have so many freaking Challenges whirling around in my head from 22+ seasons, that I totally forgot about them doing it back then. I must have been distracted by Heidi's "peanut butter and chocolate." I'm still waiting for them to bring back the "how many fish can you catch in an hour" Challenge, also from Amazon. Riveting television! You can see the original meat challenge here at the 27:33 mark (http://tehcake.com/video/Survivor/6×6.html).
Yes, NBC would have nothing but time to give to 90 minute Survivor episodes. That would be excellent.
Brandon….I just shake my head. He's going to have a complete mental breakdown at some point, but it will be fun to watch!
Thanks for reading Tom, and calling out my mistakes! (Seriously!)