Odds to Win

So, my Odds to Win took their first big hit with the ouster of Mikayla.  Now, despite her Challenge performance this week, I still think she is a very capable physical player.  That combined with Christine's growing weariness, I would place my money on Mikayla triumphing in the next Duel.  Besides Mikayla being voted out, the rest of Upolu has been rocked by the split vote.  Add in the Ozzy saga back at Savaii, and there is some decent movement on this week's Board.  Let's take a look:

Whitney: 7-1.  As you can see by the numerical value of Whitney's odds, this season is becoming more and more wide open.  It appears that she and Keith have weathered the storm brought on by voting against Ozzy, but Whitney's place is a bit more suspect.  Keith has at least solidified a new alliance with Ozzy.  Whitney will likely do the same, but until she does, her odds have to remain high for a favorite.  Then again, if Savaii loses the next Immunity Challenge, would Jim rather mobilize his three against Whitney, or sacrifice Cochran or Dawn.  Let's assume that Savaii will want to have every opportunity to go into The Merge with even numbers and wouldn't sacrifice Whitney before the final tribal Immunity Challenge.

Keith: 9-1. I said last week that I think Keith is smart.  I stand by that statement as he made a nice move in agreeing to realign with Ozzy.  Keith had to see that if he didn't, he'd be on the minority side of Savaii with Jim, Dawn, Cochran and likely Ozzy against him and Whitney.  By welcoming back Ozzy, he at least has a 3 on 3 chance.  The trick for him will be to get Cochran or Dawn out at the next Tribal Council instead of Whitney or Ozzy.  He can then take Ozzy down at will post-Merge.

Albert: 11-1.  Oh Albert, you made a move, a very smart well-thought-out move, but saw it blow up in your face when Rick became scared of the Dragon Slayer.  Now you find yourself on the short side of the tribe, but hold out hope.  Make the play I spoke of above: tell Coach you were voting for the strength of the tribe, not against him.  Really, Mikayla or Edna was sacrificeable at this stage of the game, you just thought Mikayla could help more in Challenges.  She's gone now, but you are still solid with Coach.  Coach will respect that kind of honesty and game play, and should welcome you back into the fold easily.

Dawn: 12-1. It may seem, at times, that Dawn is floating along in this game, but I think she's playing it perfectly.  After her Day Two meltdown (and truly, how many players actually have meltdowns a couple days in because of the shock to the system being pulled out of your everyday life is?  I bet it's way more than they show us), Dawn has been solid mentally, and was the hero of the Immunity Challenge a couple episodes ago.  I can't see Savaii voting her out before Cochran, which should pretty much guarantee her making The Merge in two weeks.  From there, she will likely be overlooked in favor of voting out "stronger" players (whether that be stronger physically or stronger gameplay).  One of my preseason favorites is looking pretty good at this stage of the game.

Sophie: 17-1. Sophie, like Albert is now on the wrong side of her tribe's alliance.  Also like Albert, however, I think she can rationalize with Coach that she voted based solely on keeping the tribe strong for Challenges.  What Sophie needs to do now though, is make a move against Brandon.  Yes, he will be a target post-Merge due to his perceived strength, but I have a feeling that he could take the whole Upolu ship down with him.  If Upolu must vote out someone again before The Merge, she must convince her tribe that Brandon is a greater threat to be unpredictable than anyone else, despite his protestations of loyalty above all else.

Rick: 19-1.  Well, Rick made a decision.  A decision, that to be honest, I am a bit surprised by, but not as surprised as I would have been had you told me he'd make said decision at the beginning of the game.  In rick's preseason interviews, he said that he didn't respect Coach and would try to vote him out immediately if he found the Dragon Slayer on his tribe.  Now, I understand that things change during the game, and expediency is the most important thing, but when Rick sided with Coach by voting out Mikayla, he said to everyone, "I'm scared of Coach."  For such a fan of the game, there is no way Rick thought Edna was more beneficial to Challenges than Mikayla; he voted out of fear.  Of course, voting out of fear is completely legitimate, I'm just a tad surprised the cowboy is playing like that.

Coach: 23-1. He's got them.  He's got them right where he wants them.  Coach was able to bend the will of his tribe in his favor, and in doing so, has made sure that Albert and Sophie will fall back in line next week, lest they find themselves on Redemption Island.  All this, and he has an HII, too.  Coach is going to make the Jury, if not farther.  What a turnaround for someone who looked dead in the water when he landed on the beach Day 1.

Edna: 36-1. That was a close one for everyone's favorite anesthesiologist.  In all honesty, Edna should have been voted out.  There's a reason her tribe keeps sitting her out of Challenges.  She does, however, have the most important thing in the game: a protector.  Coach knows that Edna is loyal, won't rock the boat (at least not yet) and will do whatever Coach asks her to do.  She really only needs to survive one more Tribal Council (assuming Upolu goes to one of the next two) to then have a really good shot at making it to the end of the game (pairs of alliances are very powerful post-Merge).  The hardest part for her will be convincing Upolu that she shouldn't be the next to go.  That is a very hard sell to make at this point of the game, and the reason why I had to drop her down the Odds Board.

John: 44-1. The fact that I have Cochran this high is mind-blowing, and wholly a result of everyone else really having no shot to win (in my opinion).  In all likelihood, Cochran will be the next Savaii member to be voted out (especially if they lose next week's Challenge and Savaii will need to win the final tribal Immunity to go into The Merge with even numbers).  The only reason he has lasted this long is that he is a warm body, a number that can be used by other people to achieve their ends.  This does not bode well for Cochran, but stranger things have happened that could see Cochran into the latter stages of the game.

Ozzy: 77-1. Red alert!  Red alert!!  We have a full meltdown in progress!!  Ozzy said that what was his undoing his previous times playing was his social game.  He was determined to not let his mind get wrapped around a woman, and try to be aware of the personal dynamics of his tribe.  Then he goes and completely melts down after Tribal Council and further ostracized himself from the tribe.  Moreover, he told everyone he has the Hidden Immunity Idol!!!  Now he has to scramble to make sure he has someone to side with him going forward.  Most likely, Jim's alliance will try flushing out the HII at the next Tribal Council, and Ozzy might actually find himself in the situation again where he gets himself voted out with an HII in hand!  I just don't see how Ozzy gets to the end of the game at this point.

Jim: 80-1. Only one outwardly super cocky person has ever won the game: Richard Hatch, and as he was the first winner, this was before people thought about alliances that can overcome personality issues (not that when Rob won last season, he was only cocky to the camera, never to his fellow players).  Jim is an outwardly cocky ass who is just asking for his comeuppance.  If Ozzy was smart, he'd get Keith and Whitney to tell Jim they should try to flush out Ozzy's HII, but then the three of them should vote for Jim and get that troublemaker out of the game pronto.  Even if they don't, Jim's mouth is going to be his undoing at some point prior to the Top 5.

Mikayla: 105-1.  And one of my favorites bites the dust.  It was bound to happen. The fact that it took until Episode 6 thrills me to no end.  Mikayla was targeted from the get-go due to Brandon's bizarre belief system and hallucinations, which was wholly unfair.  She performed admirably in all Challenges until this one (though I have no idea why she insisted on using only one hand, especially after Probst called her out for it), and is certainly stronger than Edna.  There was really no reason for her to go home outside Brandon's hysteria and Coach's ego.  All that said, if there is anyone who can win a few Duels in a row and make a splash when she re-enters the game, it is Mikayla.

Brandon: 113-1.  What a freaking lunatic.  Seriously.  I'm done apologizing for this guy.  He's a loon.  He wanted to keep Mikayla but will vote her out anyway?  And does he not have any internal monologue whatsoever?  I can almost guarantee that Brandon will make the Jury, so we will be subjected to one of his religious rants at the Final Three, but for the love of all that is holy, can someone vote out this guy please?

Christine: 224-1.  The tough New Yorker side is shining through for Christine.  That lady is broken, beaten, tired, and has practically given up, but somehow, she still wins Duels.  Granted, she really hasn't had a worthy competitor, and she is primed to be defeated by the very capable Mikayla next week, but even if she is, she has had a very impressive run on Redemption Island.  She's still not going to win the game though!

That's what I have for this week's Survivor.  What did you think of the episode?  What did you think of that Immunity Challenge?  Personally, I thought it was pretty badass.  Good work by the production crew on that one.  Will Coach welcome Albert and Sophie back into the fold?  Would Savaii try to blindside Ozzy at their next Tribal Council?  Is it finally time to kick out Brandon?  Are you surprised Rick said more that two sentences?!?  Please leave your questions and comments below.  I'll be back next week with another recap.  Until then, I'm off to be a sparkling water person.

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