Odds to Win
Another big hit to the Odds with Keith going down thanks to a major betrayal by Cochran. It's entirely possible Keith could go on a winning streak on Redemption Island (though he hasn't been that great in Challenges, to be honest), but even if he returns to the game, most of his alliance will likely be wiped out, and an immediate ouster would not be shocking. Dawn continues to impress, and Ozzy continues to confound, so let's see how the Odds now stack up.
Albert: 4-1. No reason to move Albert from the top spot. In fact, I've improved his Odds thanks to Upolu's numerical advantage, his keen calling of bull$#!% on Ozzy's story, and the fact that he might be making some moves in next week's episode. Right now, everything is going in the right direction for Albert.
Dawn: 8-1. Although Dawn now sits on the short side of the tribe (thanks Cochran!), I am nothing but impressed with her play. Well, her physical play anyway. There likely won't be another Challenge where male and female players both win Immunity, but I wouldn't put it past her to be able to win an endurance challenge against anyone out there. Maybe her mental game needs some improving, but I think she is well-liked, and not seen as much of a threat, so Dawn should make it pretty darn far in the game.
Whitney: 11-1. I probably should have Whitney lower as she really hasn't done anything to make her stand out as a great player or potential Sole Survivor. I just can't help but feel, however, that she will somewhat lost in the shuffle and be able to pull out an Immunity Challenge win she absolutely needs it. Likely, I'm spectacularly wrong, but until that time, Whitney will likely float around the top of the Board.
Coach: 17-1. I will admit: Coach has exceeded all of my expectations. He took firm control of Upolu after Day 1, and has not relinquished control since. Telling his tribe about the HII notwithstanding, Coach has pretty much played a perfect game. Add in his rooting out the exact plan Savaii had for The Merge and "sympathizing" with Cochran until he came over to Upolu, and Coach is practically batting 1.000. Perhaps it is time for me to start thinking about how he could actually win the game.
Sophie: 19-1. Speaking of giving a player more credit, Sophie might be shooting up the Odds Board as well. She has a solid partnership with Albert, might have pulled Cochran in to an alliance (though he may more likely go with Brandon and Coach), and should be a small enough target to make it quite a bit farther in the game. She may end up playing it all too cute by half, but I think depending on Albert's machinations next week, Sophie could be sitting Top Three.
Edna: 29-1. I like Edna. I would likely be friends with her and would probably have her as an ally if I was in the game. She's smart, and I like talkative people. That said, I don't see her as much of a threat to really to do anything to shake up the game. The reason she is even this high on the Board is because she is likely to be dragged to the Final Three as a vote void. (Speaking of the Final Three, only once has the third person in the Final Three received a vote (and it was only one vote for Amanda in Survivor: China). Can we please get rid of the Final Three? It's useless and puts too many people on the Jury.) Come on Edna, show me something!
Rick: 33-1. Rick received votes! Only because Savaii didn't really want him out and was figuring he wouldn't participate in rock picking! Uh, that's it!
Jim: 58-1. At least someone has realized that Jim is obnoxious and mean. Not that Cochran's observation meant anything for Jim's prospects. Honestly, I don't have much to say about Jim this week. He gets hurt because Savaii is now down 6-4, and he will likely try to jump ship as soon as possible. He'll still be at the bottom of Te Tuna, so really, Jim is kinda screwed.
Ozzy: 95-1. OK, credit where credit is due. Ozzy, your plan worked perfectly, insofar as you won the Duel, returned to Savaii and The Merge occurred right then. You even had Cochran return the HII to you. Congratulations. You then pulled a crazy move by announcing you had the HII, and then playing it for Whitney, who wasn't Upolu's target. Granted, you didn't know Cochran was feeding Upolu information, but as you were pretty damn certain you weren't the target (as you had Immunity), you should have kept the HII. Now, it is possible that you wanted to forego the whole picking rocks and hoping that playing the HII on Whitney would nullify any votes for her and automatically cast out whomever you were voting for, but: 1) you didn't voice that opinion at all, and more importantly, 2) that means you chose to target RICK?!? How does this make any sense? ANY?!?! Ozzy, you have not learned a thing, have you?
John: 96-1. I applaud Cochran for making a move. I just don't think it was the right one. As I described above, turning against your tribe when they have even numbers at The Merge doesn't make much sense. Was Cochran really hurt that much by what Keith or Jim has said to him? I doubt it. I think Cochran just got tired of being seen as being dragged along and wanted to prove his Survivor mettle. Coach welcomed him with open arms and some ego stroking, and Cochran took the bait. Now Cochran is at the bottom of the Upolu tribe and will find no comfort from his former tribe in hope fo picking some of them up to turn on Upolu in the future. Again, I appreciate his attempt to make a move, but I think it was two Tribal Councils too early.
Keith: 103-1. Da-da-duh-duh-duh....and another one bites the dust! Yes, one of my preseason favorites has had his torch snuffed (but not buff burned!). Keith was unfortunately the target of a seemingly much wiser Upolu tribe. If Cochran turned on Savaii, Keith would be gone. If not, well he doesn't seem to be much of a threat anyway. Seriously, has Keith done well in any Challenge this season? For a guy who looks like a great athlete, he hasn't excelled physically at all. Well, he better turn on those sporty abilities soon as he is going to have to whether probably six or seven Duels if he hopes to return to the game. It's a long shot, but it's been done before.
Brandon: 110-1. Brandon did nothing objectionable in this episode, in my eyes. Yes, maybe he shouldn't have gotten in Jim's face at the end of Tribal Council, and called out his behavior, but I actually really liked his message to Cochran to stick by his side. Very savvy move as it lets the turncoat believe he has protection so he will be loyal moving forward. Still, I don't think he has a chance in Hell of winning the million dollars, but a good move nonetheless.
That is this week's Survivor, folks. What did you think of the episode? Were you upset that Ozzy's plan actually worked (for a bit, anyways)? Would you rather The Merge didn't happen when everyone expects it? Would you have made the same move Cochran did? Should Redemption Island be concluded once The Merge occurs? (YES!!!!) Should Ozzy have kept the HII for himself? Please leave your questions and comments below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to tell you how the coconut came to be.
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