Next Time on.....Survivor!!
Albert makes a big move, but Coach is on to him. Ozzy lies in wait on Redemption Island.
This is the part of the game, when it actually occurs in a particular season, that I find to be the worst part of Survivor. Just watching one tribe get picked off post-Merge is rarely interesting. It's not until we get one or two more eliminations down the road, where the majority alliance has to cannibalize itself that it will pick up again (missing Reward Challenges doesn't help either). Yes, I suppose having the looming return of a strong player like Keith or Ozzy on the horizon provides some interest, but it's not enough to overcome the malaise that often marks this part of the game.
That said, there really isn't much to comment on from this episode. The Upolu alliance had to do exactly what they had to: eliminate the two biggest Individual Immunity threats. Brandon continues to be a loon, and it appears Albert may finally see his opportunity to make a move against Coach. The question is whether Sophie will follow him. If he can get Sophie, and gather up Dawn and Whitney, he will only need to flip Cochran to take out Coach or Brandon. Cochran seems to be in the thrall of the Dragon Slayer, but perhaps he can be convinced. It's a bold move, but perhaps one that needs to be made at this point. One last thing about this episode, though, is that the two Challenges were pretty awesome. The production staff has been outdoing themselves this season with exciting, original and varied Challenges. Kudos to John Kirhoffer and staff.
Odds to Win
Neither elimination was rather surprising: Ozzy and Jim were (and should have been) the targets for the Upolu alliance. It will be interesting to see who emerges from a probable three-way Duel between Keith, Ozzy and Jim, but my money is on Ozzy. That said, as it is becoming clearer that an Upolu member is going to win the game, there is some decent movement in this week's Odds to Win Board. Let's take a look.
Sophie: 8-1. Well, I teased it for weeks, but here it is: Sophie is now the favorite. I don't make such a declaration easily, as I had Sophie in the middle of the pack before the season started, so how did I get here? First, Upolu is clearly dominant at Te Tuna, so it is likely one of them will win. Second, I still don't see how they let Coach get to the end of the game. Third, Albert will suffer any slings and arrows that might be cast due to his upcoming maneuvering. Last, I think Sophie is smart enough to read the tea leaves and backstab her alliance at the approrpriate time. I don't believe, and I don't think Sophie believes, that next week is the appropriate time, unlike...
Albert: 9-1. Could Albert be moving too soon? Quite possibly. As I stated above, if he can marshall Dawn, Whitney and Sophie (which is no guarantee), he would only need to persuade Cochran to flip on Coach and Brandon right now. If he can get Cochran (and I would promise Cochran that he'd now be in a guaranteed Final Three because they'd cut Dawn and Whitney before him, instead of the seventh in a seven-person alliance), then this would be an ideal time to move against Coach because it would completely blindside him, and would prevent Coach from playing the Hidden Immunity Idol. There are a whole lot of "ifs" here though, so I had to knock Albert out of the top spot.
Coach: 13-1. What can you say about Coach other than he is playing a perfect game. I sound like a broken record, but he has hsi alliance firmly in his control. There is no way in Hell Brandon, Rick or Edna will betray him (at least not until the very end of the game). I thnk he is wary enough of Albert, too, to be on the lookout for a possible backstab. If he can catch Albert in the act, Coach will end up in the Final Three and will win this game. Will his tribe actually allow him to get there? Sure seems like it!
Dawn: 17-1. Things are looking bleak for Dawn with most of her former tribe now over on RI. She surely will be one of the next two to go unless 1) she goes on an Individual Immunity winning streak, or 2) she can wedge between the members of Upolu and motivate someone to flip on their alliance. #2 is more likely, though Albert seems wary of Dawn's popularity amongst his own tribe. I should probably have Dawn lower but can you really see any of these other people winning?
Whitney: 20-1. See "Dawn" above (except the part about everyone liking Whitney).
Edna: 23-1. Edna is still around. Enda will likely end up in the Final Three. Edna will not win the game unless she makes some move before the Final Tribal Council. Edna, you are going to make a move, right? Right?!?
Rick: 50-1. ............................................Hug................................................................ And so ends Rick's contribution to the show this week.
John: 68-1. OK, Cochran, I can respect your desire to take the game into your own hands. I can also respect your decision to not want to take the chance at going to rocks. What I cna not respect is you rocking Coach's jacket at Tribal Council. You are not the Daragon Slayer! You are not worthy! Seriously though, Cochran is going to have to hatch a plan with someone to overthrow the Coach/Brandon alliance or he has no shot at winning the game. Yes, he may make it to the Final Three (a la Edna), but he won't stand a chance of winning. Actually, can you imagine what the Final Tribal Council would be like with a Coach/Edna/Cochran Final Three? It would be about thirty seconds as Coach stands up, looks at the Jury, points to Edna and Cochran, and sits back down. Jeff could just take a voice vote!
Ozzy: 84-1. Of the three guys now on RI, Ozzy obviously has the best chance of emerging thanks to his skill at Challenges, but can you see a situation where he's not immediately thrown back out of the game? Granted, this will depend on when the returning RI player comes back into the game (i.e. if it is late enough, a well-timed Individual Immunity win could propel Ozzy back into the Finals), but it is likely Ozzy (or whomever wins RI) will have to face at least two Tribal Councils prior to the end of the game. Moreso than Coach, the other active players cannot let Ozzy into the Final Three.
Keith: 91-1. I don't know, I just don't feel Keith can beat Ozzy in the Duel. Even if he does, I'm not sure he can win enough Duels to make it back into the game, and then an Individual Immunity to stay safe at tribal Council. He does, however, have a better chance than...
Jim: 117-1. He of the loud mouth certainly has the ability to win Challenges, but even if Jim goes on a winning streak and makes it to the Final Three, I can't see the Jury getting over his obnoxiousness, unless he is up against say Edna and...
Brandon: 396-1. Seriously, I have just stopped trying to understand this guy's rantings. What was he going on about with Dawn at Tribal Council? I am scared to see what he will be like in another 16 days without real food. He will even more batty than he already is. I seriously hope he doesn't make it that far as he might make love, American Pie-style, to the Final Three Feast. If Brandon somehow wins the game, it will be a greater travesty than Russell not winning the game (his first time playing, obviously).
That, my friends, is this week's Survivor. What did you think of the episode? Were you at all surprised that Ozzy and Jim were eliminated? Would you have taken the feast if you were part of the Upolu alliance? Has Probst been particularly adept at saying double entendres during Challenges this season? Would you make a move against Coach now, or wait one more week? Please leave your questions and comments below. I'll be back next week with another recap. Until then, I'm off to lick a cupcake.
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