Odds to Win

Finally, a reason to move some people around on the Odds board.  My top three favorites are forced to take a hit in their numerical Odds, if not positionally, as they were so far ahead of everyone else.  Additionally, Stacey's declarations on Redemption Island have some relatively severe consequences for Albert and Coach.  Let's take a look at where the Odds stand now (and I promise, no poetry this week):

Whitney: 5-1.  Yes, as I detailed above, her move to essentially abstain from the vote was questionable, but it was a strong move nonetheless, and usually players that make strong moves are rewarded.  It is entirely possible that she and Keith could find themselves on the short end of the tribal alliance if Ozzy decides to side with Jim, Dawn and Cochran, but for reasons discussed below in my take on Ozzy, I don't think this will be the case.  Even if Whitney and Keith do find themselves int he minority, however, I believe Keith will be the one in the cross-hairs first, leaving Whitney the opportunity to make it to the Merge and cause some real trouble in the game.

Mikayla: 8-1.  Who had the best week?  Mikayla.  Any spotlight that was on her previous to this episode seemed to disappear.  Stacey's lambasting of Albert, Sophie and Coach took the bright lights off of Mikayla.  Moreover, her performance in the Challenge was excellent, showing she was a real team player by picking up the big chunk of meat Rick dropped on the ground (and which was, incidentally, the difference in the Challenge).  Even though Coach has a core three alliance (he, Albert and Sophie), Edna and likely Brandon should be targets before Mikayla.

Albert: 9-1.  It's not like Albert did anything wrong in this week's episode -- he can't control what Stacey says, and he was wise to search for the HII and then enlist Sophie and Coach to help him find it.  He had to drop, however, because as the biggest physical threat in the game, Albert needed to keep any and all focus off of him.  He will be safe until the Merge, but as long as Savaii doesn't completely self-destruct, he will be a top priority for ouster once the game moves into its second half.

Keith: 11-1. I like Keith.  I think he's smart, physically able, and is a top contender in this game.  that said, I'm not so sure his and Whitney's move was the best one.  I just don't see the upside.  Perhaps if this was the first or second vote, where there are still plenty of numbers on the tribe, it could make sense.  At this point, however, there are now only six Savaii members remaining.  If Ozzy sides with Jim, Keith will likely be the next to go.  I don't think that will happen, but the key to winning Survivor is to always place yourself in the majority.  This move doesn't do that for Keith.

Rick: 13-1.  At this point, I just don't know what to do with Rick.  I mean, the edit he has been given indicates that he isn't going to make it to the Finals or else we'd have seen him, you know, doing stuff or saying stuff.  Then again, with two veteran players, producers are likely to give them more air time, at the expense of most of the newbies.  Rick hasn't done anything that proves he is setting up some master strategy, but he also hasn't had a huge gaffe that would call for his ouster.  He is still in the majority alliance at Upolu, which has more players than Savaii, so I have to just keep him near the top of the Board.

Dawn: 15-1. Dawn is going to make the Merge, I can just feel it.  Yes, Jim organized the elimination of Elyse, but all this does is keep the heat off of Dawn.  Moreover, she seems/ed to have a bond with Ozzy which might be enough to lure him over to her alliance if he feels more betrayed by Keith and Whitney than he does Jim.  Regardless, Cochran and Jim now have much larger targets on their backs than Dawn does, so she should be around for some good time to come.

Sophie: 16-1. Finding herself as part of Coach's core three and having an HII at her disposal gives Sophie a huge boost.  Not only should the HII keep her, Albert and Coach safe for a while, she can also use that bit of knowledge to her advantage post-Merge to make a big move if she so desires.  Still, no player with her personality (I'm the smartest!  I'm the snarkiest!) has ever won the game (the closest would probably be Todd from Survivor: China), so I am loath to move her up any higher....yet.

Edna: 19-1. With the exception of needing some meat to be pulled from her teeth, Edna played no part in this episode.  This, of course, isn't a bad thing.  As Edna is firmly planted at the bottom of her alliance, she needs to hope Upolu keeps on winning Immunity Challenges, and that Brandon has another meltdown.  From the preview for next week, it is possible she might be fortunate to receive the latter.

Coach: 27-1. Oh Coach.  You think you are in complete control, and from a superficial look, you are.  You have the numbers, you have the core alliance, you have the HII.  What you are losing, however, is humility.  I think Sophie will quickly stab you in the back if it is to her advantage post-Merge, and you have to know that whomever remains on Savaii will be gunning for you if the numbers are close to even.  Do some damage control, Dragon Slayer.  Make sure the rest of Upolu still has your back.

Ozzy: 34-1. Ozzy was, as he has been in past seasons, blindisided by love.  Or lust.  Or whatever.  Amanda was his undoing on Fans vs. Favorites, and now his coziness with Elyse caused his alliance to split.  You'd think the guy would have learned.  Ozzy now faces the choice of whom to side with: does he stick with Keith and Whitney, who partially turned their back on him, and play 3 vs 3; or does he side with Jim, Dawn and Cochran, a weaker side by far, but a majority that likely gets him to the Merge?  If I were him, I would stick with Keith and Whitney solely because they know that Ozzy has the HII which could be used against him in a heartbeat.  Further, it is clear Jim can't be trusted at all, so Ozzy's primary goal should be to vote Jim out as quickly as possible.

John: 48-1.  Cochran is like the similarly sounding pest, the cockroach.  Yes, a crude comparison to be sure, but nonetheless, an apt one as Cochran just won't seem to go the way of the dodo.  He has received votes at every Savaii Tribal Council, yet he is still there.  Now, he finds himself in the unlikely position of possibly being in the majority alliance, or perhaps even a swing vote if he decides to turn on Jim.  I still don't see how Cochran wins the whole kit 'n' caboodle, but he has a good chance of making The Merge, an unlikely prospect as recent as last week.

Jim: 65-1. As I said above, making moves is important, and Jim certainly did that this week.  Jim was also rather perceptive in picking up a bit of Ozzy's strategy and moving against that.  In my opinion, however, Jim has still made a bad move.  Prior to the Merge, if you find yourself in the majority alliance, unless you can align yourself with other strong players, you need to keep that majority alliance together until the Merge.  Double-crossing someone when they still have the opportunity to directly vote you out is not a smart move.  There is no need to draw that kind of attention to yourself.  After The Merge, when alliances are constantly shifting and the endgame is in sight, that is when you backstab an elite player when he or she is least expecting it.  I respect Jim's move, but unless he can do some really fast talking, he will have the largest bull's-eye in the game upon him.

Brandon: 70-1.  Any episode that doesn't spend 45% of its time directly on Brandon is a good one to me (it appears we won't be so lucky next week).  Brandon did nothing of consequence this week, so there is no reason to really move him on the Board.  Moreover, a core alliance has formed and he is not included in it, so, if anything, that fact keeps him down.  Will next week be the week Brandon finally loses his alliance and his life in the game?  We'll have to wait and see.

Christine: 151-1.  Another impressive Duel win for Christine.  Something must be said for becoming accustomed to your surroundings and the mechanisms of the game.  Ken Jennings, the guy who won 74 consecutive games of Jeopardy!, became so used to being on that stage, and the rhythm of Alex reading a question, the lights around the board lighting up (which the TV audience can't see), and pushing the buzzer, that he would just ring in instinctually, and use the five seconds he had to actually figure out the answer (as someone who was on Jeopardy!, let me tell you that the buzzer timing is by far the hardest thing about the game).  Like Matt last season, I can see Christine becoming so comfortable with RI, the Arena and the Duels that she could streak to victory after victory.  I still think she will have a hard time when some of the more skilled players get to RI, but for now, she could continue her streak.

Elyse: 273-1.  I wouldn't be surprised if Elyse beat Christine in the next Duel, as she seems to be a pretty fit and capable woman.  That said, I can't see her triumphing over another likely five or six players in a row.  I'm not sad she was voted out, because I didn't want to see another player like Natalie from last season who just glom on to a strong player and ride in their shadow all the way to the Finals.  The show is better that she has been (semi-)eliminated.

Alright, that's what I have for this week's episode of Survivor.  What did you think of the episode?  Was it a relief to not have a Brandon-dominated episode (though it appears he will be spotlighted again next week)?  What would you have done if you were Keith or Whitney?  Would you have voted with either side, or voted for a third player like the pair did tonight?  Was that the most disgusting Challenge ever?  Please leave your questions and comments below.  I'll be back next week with another recap.  Until then, I'm off to wear my retainer as diligently as I should.

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