No matter what internet trolls or disgruntled movie-goers might do to try and stop it, Black Panther is showing no signs of fumbling out of the gates when it is released later this month. Weeks before its release, the critics who have already seen the movie are shouting its praises to the sky, some calling it the best Marvel movie yet and others claiming that it will begin a new chapter in the larger superhero genre.
And, according to every indication we have, the public is buying into the hype. Even before the social media embargo on critics was lifted, the movie’s ticket preorders were beating out many of the genre’s top performers at the box office. And afterwards, bolstered by the remarkably strong word of mouth, the film has surged, breaking records for the number of tickets it has been selling in advance of its release.
Current predictions for the movie, in short, are looking good: extraordinary, in fact. In fact, the movie is tracking for a $400 million domestic box office run. Four hundred million dollars. If true, that would make it the fifth best-grossing movie in the MCU within the United States, putting it just under The Avengers, Age of Ultron, Iron Man 3 and Civil War. In fact, it would be within a scant $10 million of those last two, giving it a real chance of jumping all the way to number 3 (and thus the highest grossing solo movie in the franchise).
Let’s put that in even greater perspective. It would put it within a stone’s throw of Wonder Woman‘s $412 million domestic run last year (the highest of any superhero movie). That would put it ahead of all three Marvel movies from that same year: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($389 million), Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334 million) and Thor: Ragnarok ($313 million). That would put it way ahead of both DC’s Justice League ($228 million) and Fox’s Logan ($226 million).
And those are just the domestic numbers. It would doubtless perform even better overseas, where global-oriented and colorfully cast features tend to draw in greater crowds than they do stateside. Even then, Marvel has always performed better with the world at large than it does within the US in particular. Although early, and less fleshed out than the domestic estimates, the $500 million or more it could pull in from global audiences puts it very nearly at the coveted $1 billion mark: the gold standard of major studio blockbusters.
Expect to see a more diverse lineup for Phases 4 and beyond if and when Black Panther consumes the global box office. Marvel — and other studios — won’t have any excuse to keep their film slates so piteously monochrome.